The “Bearish Consensus” in the Options Market—The Game Behind a $1.4 Billion Bet

After Bitcoin broke through $71,000, the options market’s reaction diverged in an intriguing way from the optimistic sentiment in the spot market.

Deribit’s position data shows that as of early April, both put options around the $60,000 strike and call options around the $80,000 strike accumulated approximately $1.4 billion in nominal open interest, forming a large-scale “troop buildup” on both ends of the price range. This kind of positioning structure typically indicates that the “smart money” in the options market believes the price will trade in a range of $60,000 to $80,000, and it uses the large positions at both ends to harvest time value.

More notably, after Bitcoin broke above $70,000, implied volatility in options continued to trend downward. Demand for puts still remained at a relatively high level, and the market’s forecast showed a 65% to 68% probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000. This is a fairly high downside probability estimate, standing in sharp contrast to the optimistic sentiment in the spot market that pushed through $71,000.

However, after the rebound on April 8, the skew (Skew) negative skew situation was somewhat narrowed, indicating a marginal improvement in extreme bearish sentiment. But the term structure of implied volatility on the short end is still inverted, suggesting traders still prefer hedging against short-term downside risk rather than chasing rallies. $BTC ‌

For ordinary investors, the signals given by the options market are more worth paying attention to than spot prices: big funds are paying a premium for downside risk around $60,000, while selling to hedge the upside above $80,000. This type of structure typically implies that even if the spot price continues to rebound, the sustainability of the rally may be limited. The $70,000 to $72,000 area is where the battle between bulls and bears is most intense—investors are advised to reduce leverage and avoid getting “poked” by short-term volatility.

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