Tomorrow is May 19 again. Every time this date comes around, I think of the 519 incident in 2021. That feeling is truly unforgettable. As an old hand who has been through it, I have to say—how fierce that day’s black swan was doesn’t really need elaboration. How many people went from dreams of instant wealth to losing everything overnight; the thrill of such dramatic ups and downs—when I think back on it now, it still feels a bit unfinished. But to be honest, the current market is too tightly controlled by Wall Street, so it’s unlikely we’ll see that kind of scene again.

Let’s review what happened that year. The fuse for the 519 incident was actually very simple: Elon Musk suddenly changed his stance. He had originally been a big fan of crypto. In early 2021, Tesla invested $1.5 billion to buy Bitcoin, and it also announced that it would accept Bitcoin payments. On Twitter, he even promoted meme coins like Dogecoin, stoking market sentiment and heating the market up. Then by mid-May, he turned 180 degrees. He said Tesla would stop accepting Bitcoin payments, arguing that mining consumes too much electricity and is harmful to the environment. That was like throwing a bomb into the market—Bitcoin plunged from $57,000 straight to $46,000. Later, he also hinted on Twitter that he might sell his Bitcoin, which made things even worse.

But behind the 519 incident, it wasn’t just Musk’s statements. At the same time, China also stepped up regulation. On May 18, three major associations jointly issued an announcement requiring a ban on virtual currency trading, and Inner Mongolia was also cracking down on mining. Once these signals came out, the market started to panic. Plus, the previous bull market had indeed blown a huge bubble. Bitcoin rose from $30,000 at the start of the year to $64,000 in April—doubling. Meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu also saw outrageous gains, jumping from a few cents to a few dollars. These rallies had absolutely no fundamental support—they were propped up purely by social media hype.

By May 19, market sentiment completely collapsed. Bitcoin plunged from $43,000 to $30,000, a 30% drop. Ethereum fell even more severely—from $3,300 to $1,900, down 42%. Other coins all dropped by more than 30%, and some even exceeded 50%. That day, every exchange lagged badly. Many people couldn’t close their positions at all, so they could only watch their assets shrink. The fear index surged to 0.8, and the greed index fell to 10—turning the market completely into panic.

Fortunately, this wasn’t the end of the story. By the afternoon of May 19, some institutions and big players began to buy the dip, and the market gradually stabilized. Bitcoin returned to $40,000, and Ethereum rebounded to $2,800, before entering a period of adjustment.

Looking back at the 519 incident now, it actually reflects a fundamental problem in the crypto market: it’s too easy for the market to be driven by emotions. In bull markets, everyone goes crazy; in bear markets, everyone panics. A single remark from Musk could trigger fluctuations with market value in the hundreds of billions, which in itself shows that the market is still not rational enough. Compared with then, now that Wall Street has entered the scene—although it’s more tightly controlled—the market is indeed much more stable. To see another black swan on the level of the 519 incident, we’d probably have to wait for the next true systemic risk.