The index remains non-reversal upward while maintaining a positive outlook! (2026.04.08)

Market Recap:[TaoGuba]
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index rose +2.69%, the ChiNext Index rose +5.91%, and the STAR 50 Index rose +6.18%. Total trading volume across both markets was 2.43T yuan. There were 5,174 stocks that rose and 301 that fell. Compared with yesterday, total market trading volume increased by 820.1B yuan.

Overall Market Sentiment: Broad-based rotation
There were 122 stocks hitting the daily limit (up limit) today, versus 93 yesterday
There were 11 20-cm up-limit stocks today, versus 7 yesterday
There were 11 consecutive-limit stocks today, versus 7 yesterday
There were 4 down-limit stocks today, versus 4 yesterday
Today’s board-filling (limit-up) break rate was 12.2%, versus 21.8% yesterday
Today’s first-board success rate was 10.4%, versus 12.5% yesterday

Big Loser Stocks for Today
Tianjin Yao Yao -14, Pharmaceuticals
Xintian Pharmaceutical -15, Pharmaceuticals
Before 9:45 a.m. at the open, whether the prior day’s big-loser stocks can quickly recover is an auxiliary judgment signal for the sector’s recovery.

Today’s pre-market surge beyond expectations
Mangji Xuchuang/New Yisheng/Shenghong Technology

Full Breakdown of Consecutive Limit-Up Stocks:
4 consecutive boards: Huiyuan Communications (optical communications)
3 consecutive boards: Zhongan Ke (computing power)
2 consecutive boards: Xinchonggang (electric power), Huayuan Holdings (real estate), Klerui Technology (optical communications), Pubang Shares (infrastructure), Tongding Interconnection (optical communications, optical fiber), Gaole Shares (equity changes, consumption), Guangdong Media (AI applications), China Gezhouba Group (infrastructure), Nanjing Pharmaceuticals (pharmaceuticals)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Node Analysis:
The number of stocks hitting the daily limit reached extreme high levels; the number of consecutive-limit stocks increased in the mid-to-high range; the break rate decreased; the number of 20-cm limit-ups increased; the number of down-limit stocks stayed roughly flat at the low range. The ratio of total capital inflow for limit-up stocks / total market volume was 0.61 in the high range. Observing the data and comparing with yesterday, there were clear changes. This indicates that sentiment is further recovering. At the same time, pay attention to the sentiment stage high point in a weak market; its durability still needs observation. Overall, judging by the present stage, it is a chaotic cycle range-bound trial-and-error phase.

Sentiment Temperature: Sentiment 80—preference is close to a climax

Recent strong sectors. The strongest sector on the day. Intraday standout stocks to identify:

Recent sector effect timeline:

II. Capital Analysis:

Bad Money Effect—
For sectors, there is no obvious bad money effect. It is mainly concentrated in pharmaceuticals and petroleum-related directions. It represents the weakening and clearing-out of divergence during reverse-sentiment cycle themes, as well as the weakening of divergence related to geopolitical situation themes.
In terms of positioning and structure, there is no obvious bad money effect either, and it is concentrated across different structures, represented by Keli Shares, Becken Energy, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Chongyao Holdings, and others.

Good Money Effect—
For sectors, some are distributed in optical communications, PCB, liquid cooling, domestic computing power, AI applications, metal, gas turbines, commercial aerospace, and other directions. This is represented by sectors with recent resilience against declines or oversold directions experiencing a broad-based rotation rally.
In terms of positioning and structure, some are distributed in mid-to-low-position structures, represented by BlueColor Media, Hude Electric, Shen Jian Shares, Oryde, Wanze Technology, and others.

Summary of Capital Flows—
In recent days, there has been no signal of follow-through and continued offensive from sectors or themes that were strong recently or were strong yesterday. Instead, capital chooses oversold directions or uses recent anti-drawdown rotation as the offensive direction in a contrarian manner. This suggests capital is more inclined to try-and-test from lower levels, not to push for major upside breakthroughs at the highest level. For now, we judge it as trial-and-error in new themes or a trading/arbitrage intent. A positive signal is that big capital has already started to enter and participate in the tech line.

III. Sector Analysis:
Sectors or concepts that continue to show a benign trend structure today: optical fiber / optical communications / OCS / optical chips / PCB copper-clad laminates

The sectors or concepts above represent where the recent profit effect lies and where capital has recently been highly involved; they can be referenced as a direction for ultra-short-term stock selection models.

Pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs)—
It is at the end of the first phase of the trend cycle.
The first phase was led by Tianjin Yao Yao and Wanfangde, with smaller followers following suit.

Today’s pharmaceutical sector play-out path:
In the pre-opening stage, Meinonghua’s one-word limit-up order was inexplicable (if it’s boosted by the XinduoDuo concept, Guosheng Technology and Farsun are negative feedback, so that conclusion doesn’t hold). Xintian Pharmaceutical’s one-word limit-up, Tianjin Yao Yao gapped up, and there weren’t many abnormal signals during the pre-opening auction.

After the open, Nanjing Pharmaceuticals quickly filled the gap with a limit-up to catch up; Tianjin Yao Yao quickly hit limit-up, then broke the board and fell back sharply. Wanfangde shook and weakened (yesterday’s pre-opening avoided anomaly momentum-buy signals, showing no proactive offensive; it was below expectations). Haitai Xinguang shook and strengthened. Within the sector, individual stocks still behaved as a group-bonding style; don’t treat it as being purely “pharmaceutical” by attribute. Intraday, the entire sector weakened more and more versus the index.

The post-recap yesterday mentioned that based on the mid-position continuous negative feedback representing the continuation of the bears, the front-end trend stocks separating from the sector’s attributes—where the trend core is misaligned and diverges from the sector index—can be used to judge that the pharmaceutical cycle is in its late stage, and the main approach should be retreat.

Today’s index and sentiment surged together; Tianjin Yao Yao, as a product of an inverse-to-index cycle, was also clearly abandoned by capital. Similarly, after Wanfangde avoided the anomaly, “strong but not strong” is weak. Since pharmaceuticals act as a power-sector follow-up theme, and Tianjin Yao Yao and Wanfangde are both highly constrained by Huadian Liaoning Energy and Yunnan Energy Holding, no matter what, the opportunity to participate in the pharmaceutical sector should be given up afterward. Even if rotation happens, it tends to be biased toward pullback-and-exit points.

Domestic Computing Power—
It is at the first stage of the trial-and-error cycle.
The first stage was led by Oryde, with smaller followers following suit.

Today’s domestic computing power play-out path:
In the pre-opening stage, Hanggang Shares had a one-word limit-up (DS), Yunse Zhili (DS), Daily Interaction (DS), Oryde, etc. all gapped up. After the open, Oryde quickly hit limit-up. Lianhua Holdings followed with a limit-up. In terms of leadership in the board positions, Zhongan Ke got pushed back onto the board. Hongjing Technology shook and strengthened (independent control). During the session, large-cap technology stocks such as CIGABO Chuang, Pingzhi Information, etc. all hit limit-up, forming a爆发式 expansion in the intraday domestic computing power sector.

First, today’s more than ten limit-ups in domestic computing power look strong. In reality, the DS core—Daily Interaction, Yunse Zhili, etc.—had only average feedback. The prior trend core—MeiliYun, etc.—formed a choppy structure. Intraday limit-up stocks had recognition mainly in Oryde and Lianhua Holdings; the rest were either oversold rebound limit-ups or side-angle stocks.

Second, the earlier-mentioned drivers for domestic computing power: the expansion of domestic advanced process capacity and the explosive growth in AI applications correspond to increased consumption demand for Tokens, which is a medium-to-long term logic.
Whether it’s that the sector index related to computing power didn’t make new highs and maintained a non-breakout structure, or that no large batch of front-end trend core stocks emerged, based on the factors judging the drivers of the rise, domestic computing power is not a sector expected to rise linearly or continuously in the short term. It is more suitable for positioning/“埋伏” participation while considering patient capital.

Artificial Intelligence (AI hardware, chips, computing power)—
It is in the 13th stage of the trend cycle.
First stage: HaiLi Shares, Chunzhong Technology led, with followers such as Zhangjiang Hi-Tech following.
Second stage: HaiLi Shares, Dongxin Shares led, with followers such as Zhangjiang Hi-Tech following.
Third stage: Chunzhong Technology, Huawei? Tiancheng, and InnoV? Yike? led, with followers such as Feilong Shares following.
Fourth stage: Huawei? Tiancheng led, with followers following suit.
Fifth stage: Cambricon, Higo? Information led, with followers following suit.
Sixth stage: Huawei? Tiancheng led, with followers following suit.
Seventh stage: No clear leading core; local rotation.
Eighth stage: Foxconn? Industrial Internet, Shenghong Technology led, with followers following suit.
Ninth stage: No leading core; each branch’s core alternated upward.
Tenth stage: Damingli, Xiangnong Xinchuang, JiangboLong, Mangji Xuchuang, Shenghong Technology led, with followers following suit.
Eleventh stage: BlueColor Media led, with followers such as 360 and Visual China.
Twelfth stage: Alternating rotations upward with trial-and-error behavior.
Thirteenth stage: Tongfu Microelectronics, Higo? Information led, with followers following suit.
Fourteenth stage: FiberHome led, with followers such as Hengtong Optoelectronics and Hangdian Shares.

Q “trend core”: Feilihua, Pingan Electric, Sinomaterials? Technology, Honghe Technology—entered a correction stage; in the short term, expectations can’t be judged; medium-to-long term logic.
M9 resin materials: Dongcai Technology—entered a correction stage; in the short term, expectations can’t be judged; medium-to-long term logic.
Copper foil trend core: Tongguan Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Fudate Technology—entered a correction stage; in the short term, expectations can’t be judged; medium-to-long term logic.
PCB orthogonal backplane trend core: Shenghong Technology, Hude Electric, Shenzhen Nan? Circuit—entered a correction stage; in the short term, expectations can’t be judged; medium-to-long term logic.
Storage chip trend core: Jiangbolong, Xiangnong Xinchuang, Damingli, 佰维存储, Zhaoji Innovative?—entered a phase of deep consolidation. As this year’s performance gradually releases, it likely will form a wave-based upward trend; medium-to-long term logic.
Optical communications trend core: Mangji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Dongshan Precision, LianTe Technology, Tianfu Communication—entered a correction stage; in the short term, expectations can’t be judged; medium-to-long term logic.
PCB trend core: Nanya New Materials, Jingan Guoji, CCL price increases—unable to judge expectations in the short term; medium-to-long term logic
OCS optical switching trend core: Tengjing Technology, Guangku Technology, Dekeli, Juguang Technology—temporarily a choppy structural trend judgment.
CW optical chip trend core: Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxing, Yongding Shares—breakout-channel oscillation and upward move; medium-to-long term logic.
Optical communications indium phosphide trend core: Yunnan Germanium Industry, indium phosphide substrate raw materials—oscillating trend structure; medium-to-long term logic.
Optical rotary prism trend core: Fujing Technology, Zhongrun Optics—Faraday rotator prism capacity constrained, supply-demand imbalance; in the short term, it is temporarily oscillating and trending upward.
Domestic computing power trend core: Ouveide?—temporarily oscillating trend structure judgment.
Optical fiber trend core: Hangdian Shares, FiberHome Optoelectronics, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnection—as the most resilient and most proactive branch within the tech line, the front-end rally is large and basically “well-known” logic. It tends to move as a group-bonding behavior. Unable to judge its top/bottom expectations; it is in a profit-holding stage for those holding positions. If you haven’t participated, it’s more “watching the show,” or “digging in with stubborn conviction.”

Today’s tech line play-out path:
In the pre-opening stage, the optical communications direction showed clear abnormal movement. Huiyuan Communications, Mingo? Guangci had one-word limit-ups; capacity stocks Dongshan Precision (positive), Mangji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, New Yisheng, etc. all collectively surged on high volume and opened strongly.

After the open, the optical module sub-branch saw Dongshan Precision hit a quick limit-up; Mangji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Tianfu Communication shook and strengthened. Then the PCB direction followed. Capacity Shenghong Technology shook and strengthened. Guanghe Technology, Xiehe Electronics, Shenzhen Nan Circuit, Hude Electric, etc. followed with strong gains and limit-ups. At this time, pay attention to the optical fiber sub-branch trend core—FiberHome Optoelectronics, Hangdian Shares, Hengtong Optoelectronics—shaking and weakening. Similarly, in the OCS concept—Dekeli, Guangku Technology, Tengjing Technology—opened high and then fell back. As the index and sentiment further strengthened during the day, liquid cooling, chip semiconductors, and other directions also followed with strength. The tech line became the strongest sector intraday.

Today’s tech line—watch these three signals:

1. Recently, the trend core stocks Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hangdian Shares, and FiberHome Optoelectronics are weakening, while Tongding Interconnection, Huiyuan Communications, and Klerui Technology are strengthening. The trend play differs from the sentiment flow in a separated structure, indicating there are “lagging” signals in the trend—observe whether it enters a stage of further selling pressure exhaustion and then a pullback catch-up.

2. The relatively stronger optical fiber sub-branch and the OCS concept are both oscillating and adjusting intraday, rather than rising strongly in sync with index/sentiment resonance upward. This shows that within the tech line, rotation and alternating advances remain the pattern; capital is not showing a sustained “breakthrough space” long intent.

3. Whether it’s the optical chip CW track’s capital switching from Yuanjie Technology to Yongding Shares to lead, whether optical fiber switching from Hangdian or FiberHome to Tongding Interconnection to lead, or whether the rotary prism—Fujing Technology—switching to Zhongrun Optics to lead, all of these indicate that the intraplat assets are not moving in sync. They side-feedback that neither the sector’s sub-branch concepts nor the entire tech line has an expectation of sustained upside.

In summary: today’s tech line rose strongly overall, and even though there are still alternating rotation upward signals between sub-branches and individual stocks, we judge there is temporarily no expectation of sustained upside for the tech line. However, the positive sign is that large capital has taken the lead with chips/positions across the whole tech line. The next step is likely to follow opportunities in an index-structured market.

IV. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown in the chart, today’s broad market index opened high and trended higher, forming a big bullish candlestick structure. Supported by positive stimuli from eased negotiations over the external geopolitical situation, the index strengthened through oscillation without a pullback, which was relatively beyond expectations. A more positive signal is that the index moved above the 5- and 20-day trend lines to fill the gap. The key is that the market volume expanded by 820B yuan. Besides Northbound capital (more than 200 billion yuan), it indicates that the “real” increase in intraday volume is close to 600 billion yuan. That means big capital has already entered earlier with a portion of advance positioning chips, so we can judge that the left-side is bottoming space.

If the index and sentiment both surged together, does that mean there is a sustained upside expectation? Or that the index directly reverses in a V-shape upward? Not exactly.

First, from a macro perspective: the geopolitical negotiation cycle lasts as long as two weeks. According to the “talking repeatedly and going back and forth” narrative, the actual negotiation results have considerable uncertainty. In the future, it is very likely that they will continue to “fight while negotiating,” meaning negotiations happen with fighting as the mode.

Second, from a theme resonance perspective: today’s index and sentiment surged. However, recently strong themes or stocks did not show follow-through offensive signals. Intraday, the rally instead came from AI application oversold directions. The tech line—PCB, optical modules, liquid cooling, domestic computing power—has recently been sectors that resist declines or rotate. Intraday, the market did not show profit-effect extension or sustained signals.

Therefore, although today the three—index, sentiment, and market liquidity/volume—match in a benign structure at the same level, we still cannot judge it as an effective resonance reversal upward. The most likely scenario afterward is a structure similar to last year’s September-October: repeated consolidation and slow-paced upward trends. With sentiment slightly more positive expectations, as long as there is a big drop later, it can be treated as a mid-to-long-term add-on point, or an ultra-short-term low-buy (and game) node.

Thoughts for before tomorrow’s trading:
From a sentiment perspective, the intraday sentiment stage high is close to a climax. Based on factors such as intraday benign upside and the likely decent performance of overseas U.S. stocks after the close, we judge that tomorrow is likely to have inertia-driven upside momentum. As for whether it will spike and then pull back, observe real-time volume. Overall, the market main line rate is still based on the range-bound structural market outlook. Combining the rotation mindset, the big-up sectors of today hitting highs on the next day are instead the ultra-short-term “realization/execution” points. Be cautious with “relay” behavior—AI applications, optical modules, domestic computing power. For sectors that had abnormal intraday adjustments recently but did not rise big today—optical fiber, OCS, commercial aerospace, lithium batteries, and the performance line (such as nonferrous metals)—they actually have rotation expectations.

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