The market has just started to show some signs of recovery, and this ceasefire news is indeed quite crucial.

Recently, in the Middle East, things have suddenly become less tense.
Trump has announced: a two-week pause on military actions against Iran.
The conditions are straightforward—Iran must "completely and safely open" the Strait of Hormuz.
The key point is that Iran hasn't pushed back hard but has chosen to cooperate:
Official statements indicate that during this ceasefire period, defensive actions will be paused, and coordination with the military will be maintained to allow ships to resume passage within a controllable range.
The most tangible change has already appeared—ships are starting to move.
Previously, over 1,000 ships were stranded on both sides of the strait, but now a small number are attempting to pass.
The U.S. also said it would help facilitate the flow, even framing this easing as a "potential opportunity for wealth."
Does this sound a bit like a "warming of the situation"?
But I still want to pour a little cold water: this is more like a "breather," not a solution to the problem.
First, this is only a temporary two-week ceasefire, essentially to buy time for negotiations.
Starting from April 10, relevant talks will gradually unfold.
And the core issues remain unchanged:
Nuclear concerns, regional power struggles, and the confrontation between Israel and Iran are all still there.
Iran already considers this round a "phase victory" and has put forward a set of demands (including lifting sanctions and reconstruction).
Although Israel hasn't continued to make harsh statements, their actions haven't completely stopped either.
Back to the shipping concerns—nothing has been fully stabilized.
The right to passage through the Strait of Hormuz is still in Iran's hands; whether permission will be granted, whether fees will be charged, and how safety will be ensured are all still unclear.
So, what is the current situation?
It looks like the flow is starting to resume on the surface, but the underlying uncertainties haven't decreased at all.
If the negotiations two weeks from now don't progress smoothly, this "easing" could end at any time, and the risks could quickly resurface.
To put it simply, my own judgment is:
This is more of an emotional and liquidity boost, but not a true reversal yet.
It's okay to be optimistic, but don't get too ahead of yourself too soon.

‍#加密市场回升