Macquarie: China's hog prices fall to 15-year lows, excess supply raises concerns

LootboxPhobia · 2026-04-08T12:27:54+00:00

As of the end of March, China's live pig prices have decreased by 30% year-on-year, hitting a 15-year low, with farming losses exceeding 400 yuan. The breeding sow inventory has slightly declined but remains above normal levels. Industry profits are expected to improve by 2026. U.S. live pig prices are rising and are forecasted to continue growing in the future. China's white-feathered broiler prices are seasonally declining, while chick prices are rising. Raw milk prices are stable but slightly decreasing.

LootboxPhobia

2026-04-08 12:27:54

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Investing.com — A Macquarie report shows that as of the end of March, China’s hog prices were down 30% year over year, falling below 10 yuan per kilogram and reaching the lowest level in 15 years. In March, losses from raising hogs exceeded 400 yuan per head, with the industry continuing to face pressure from oversupply.

As of the end of January, China’s inventory of productive sows stood at 39.58 million head, down 2.6% year over year and down 0.1% month over month, but still 1.5% above the normal level. The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to carry out a second round of central government purchases of frozen pork this year to support prices.

Macquarie expects that, driven by the decline in the inventory of productive sows since the fourth quarter of 2025, the industry will see an improvement in profitability in the second half of 2026. Weak hog prices combined with rising feed costs could accelerate capacity rationalization and market consolidation.

In the U.S., the average hog price in March rose 3% month over month and 8% year over year. As of the end of March, U.S. lean hog futures reached $0.91 per pound, up 4% year over year. As of March 1, the number of breeding hogs fell slightly month over month, down 1% year over year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that, supported by high beef prices and strong export demand, U.S. hog prices in the second quarter of 2026 will rise 6.2% year over year.

As of the end of March, China’s white-feathered chicken price fell 4.8% month over month due to seasonal weakness and because hog prices were below expectations, while chick prices rose 7% month over month. In February 2026, China paused imports of French breeding poultry after an avian influenza outbreak in France on December 29.

In March, China’s raw milk price remained stable at 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 1.3% year over year.

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