All parties agree to a two-week ceasefire, and WTI crude oil once plummeted by 15%.

Driven by a turning point in the Middle East situation, the international crude oil market saw sharp fluctuations today. On Wednesday, in the early Asia-Pacific trading session, WTI crude’s decline kept widening, at one point falling to 15%. As of the time of publication by Jiemian News, WTI crude was trading at $97.35 per barrel, down 13.84%.

On the news front, according to CCTV News, on the 7th, U.S. President Donald Trump said he agreed to pause bombings and attacks on Iran within two weeks. Trump said, “We received Iran’s ten-point proposals, and we believe they are a viable basis for negotiations. The United States and Iran have nearly reached consensus on almost every point of contention over the past arguments, but the two weeks will allow the agreement to be finalized and completed.”

In a statement issued in the early hours of the 8th local time, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said, in accordance with the guidance of the Supreme Leader and with approval from the Supreme National Security Council, it accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan. The statement from the Secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reported that negotiations with the United States will begin on April 10 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, and will last for two weeks.

According to CCTV News, citing information from the U.S. side on the 7th, a White House official said that Israel has also agreed to a temporary ceasefire.

At present, both the U.S. and Iran have agreed that negotiations will begin on April 10 in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, for a period of two weeks. The market is closely watching the progress of the talks, as well as whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume normal navigation, which will directly determine the future direction of oil prices.

International oil prices have seen significant ups and downs in the recent period. In March 2026, Brent crude prices once briefly broke above $119 per barrel, before falling back; then in the latter part of March, they returned to above $100 per barrel and continued to rise further. Entering early April, oil prices once remained at high levels—for example, on April 7, WTI crude oil futures had been reported at $116.871 per barrel.

“After the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded, international oil prices surged significantly, lifting global inflation expectations. U.S. residents complained about rising living costs, especially as the increase in oil prices led to higher fueling costs, which has put Trump under considerable anti-war pressure at home. Trump also hopes to find a decent pretext to end this war, which has not much substantive meaning.” Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open-Source Fund, told Jiemian News.

Wang Jun, deputy general manager of Great Wall Huadian Futures, had earlier analyzed that since February 28, the transmission of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict to oil prices has been divided into three stages: first, after the U.S.-Israel surprise attack, Brent crude prices surged from $85 per barrel to $119 per barrel; second, after the Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil prices climbed again; third, under ceasefire expectations, oil prices showed the characteristics of falling from highs and experiencing repeated, choppy volatility.

Lunzhong Information predicts that over the next three months, the average monthly price of U.S. crude will be $94.69 per barrel, $86.37 per barrel, and $72.51 per barrel in sequence, showing a stepwise downward trend. The institution believes that the U.S. side has stated it will not get entangled with Iran for too long; in the future, the intensity of the conflict is expected to decline. The issue of restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is also under negotiations among multiple countries. Combined with the recent high volatility in international oil prices, it is expected that the probability of a further cut in the next round of refined oil price adjustments will be relatively high.

Gold Lianchuang said that in recent times, crude oil overall has shown a pattern of surging up and then falling back, and the weekly average price rose month-on-month. Although high oil prices have begun to suppress some oil consumption, overall demand still shows strong resilience. It is expected that global crude oil demand will gradually rise to around 106 million barrels per day and remain at a high level. Because the decline in demand is limited, it is difficult to fully offset the impact brought about by supply contraction, so the market overall is still in a tight balance, or even in a shortage situation.