Geopolitical "feint" and technical side tug-of-war at high levels

News Backdrop: A “Two-Person Act” of Geopolitics and Macro Sentiment

• Key Events:
  • Trump’s diplomatic comments (bullish/volatile): According to the latest reports, Trump said Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a two-week ceasefire. The news caused WTI crude oil to instantly drop by about 10%, while gold did not fall but instead rose (at one point surging toward 4800), showing that the market is not only pricing in risk-off sentiment, but also wrestling over the potential expectations of monetary policy easing after a sharp crude oil selloff.
  • Central bank accumulation dynamics (long-term bullish): China’s gold reserves increased by 160k troy ounces month-over-month at the end of March, delivering a “17-month streak of net increases.” Sustained backing from major countries provides solid long-term price-floor support for gold.
  • Interest-rate environment (bearish): Despite gold rising, CME data shows the probability of a rate cut in April is almost zero. The contest between a high-rate environment and gold as a non-yielding asset remains the main hurdle right now.
• Impact on Longs and Shorts: In the short term, liquidity reshuffling driven by crude oil volatility provides a pulse-like lift to gold prices. However, if expectations of geopolitical cooling are confirmed, be alert to the unwinding of the risk-premium.

2. Technical Analysis: Sideways trading at high levels on the 4-hour chart—watch for resistance pressure

• Moving averages:
  • MA(120) forms strong support near 4651.
  • The short-cycle moving averages MA(5)/MA(10) are intertwined, indicating that on the 1-hour timeframe price is in a range-bound, non-trending consolidation phase.
• Indicator analysis:
  • Pattern: The 4-hour chart shows a clear path of “a rally that turns into a fall, then sideways trading.” 4838 is the key pivot level.
  • Trend: Price is currently hovering near the mouth area of the Alligator (jaw indicator), in a consolidation period. If it cannot effectively hold above 4800, there is a need for a pullback to test the 4700 support.
• Key levels: Resistance levels: 4800 (psychological level), 4838 (recent high).
  • Support levels: 4740 (dense trading zone), 4692 (MA5/previous support).

3. Trade Direction: Range-bound consolidation—defend and counter

• Position strategy:
  • If you currently have no position (flat): It is recommended to wait and watch, and look for a short-sale signal after resistance rejection is confirmed in the 4800-4810 range, or go long after a pullback toward the 4720 area stabilizes.
  • If you hold a short position: Stop-loss must be set strictly at above 4845. If price breaks below 4760, you can move the take-profit down.
  • If you hold a long position: Near 4820, you should reduce exposure first, and be cautious of profit-taking selloffs after geopolitical positives have played out.
• Position sizing: It is recommended that the total position size not exceed 13%. Currently, price is in a wide-range consolidation (4700-4840). High leverage makes it very easy to get liquidated by random fluctuations.

4. Risk Warnings and Plan

• Risk point one: A reversal in geopolitical rumors. If the two-week ceasefire agreement falls through, risk-off sentiment could flare up again, and gold could directly test the 5000 level.
  • Response: Absolutely do not hold positions through the trade against adverse moves; when resistance is broken, stop-loss must be triggered.
• Risk point two: Liquidity squeeze triggered by a crude oil crash. In extreme cases, a sharp collapse in crude oil could cause commodity-style gold to passively fall as well.

Disclaimer: This article only represents the author’s personal opinions and does not represent the stance or viewpoints of this platform. This article is only for information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.