Iran plays its "trump card," Houthi forces join the fight, and international energy supplies could face double the disruption

Ask AI: What role do Iran’s strategic considerations play in the Houthi forces’ operations?

The Israeli newspaper The Times of Israel reported on the 28th that on that day the Yemen-based Houthi forces launched a ballistic missile toward southern Israel, marking the Houthi forces “entering the war.”

According to Israel’s Channel 12, in the early morning today (March 28), local time, Israeli forces monitored a missile launch from Yemen toward southern Israel and successfully intercepted it. This is the first time since Israel launched its “Operation Shouting Lion” against Iran that Israel has monitored a missile launched from Yemen toward Israel.

Previously, the Yemen-based Houthi forces listed three conditions for joining the war

On the 27th, the Yemen-based Houthi forces said that against the backdrop of continued escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the organization had set three conditions for a possible military intervention and warned that once any of those situations occurred, it would directly take military action.

▲ Yemen Houthi military spokesperson Yahya (illustration/photo from archive)

In a statement released late that night via Masirah TV, a television station controlled by the organization, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said:

• If the Red Sea is used to launch military action against Iran or other Islamic countries;

• If new regional entities or an international alliance join in supporting the United States and Israel in their actions against Iran and its regional camp, the “Axis of Resistance”;

• If military escalation targeting Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” continues to expand;

In those cases, the Houthi forces may all directly take part in the war.

Saree also urged the United States and Israel to immediately stop their acts of aggression against Iran and countries related to the “Axis of Resistance.” He said these military actions are “unjust and unreasonable,” and not only endanger regional and global security and stability, but also have a negative impact on the world economy.

He also urged an end to the blockade on Yemen, warning that any further moves to intensify the blockade on Yemen would be met with retaliation, adding that the Houthi forces “are prepared to respond to any developments.” Saree also called for implementing commitments, including humanitarian assistance included in the Gaza ceasefire agreement.

On the 26th, Abdul Malik Houthi reiterated the organization’s stance opposing U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran, saying that the organization would not remain neutral in the current situation. If the development of the war requires it, it will “take proactive action with confidence.”

On March 11, 2025, in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, supporters of the Yemen-based Houthi forces attend a rally expressing support for resuming attacks on Israeli ships. Photo by Xinhua News Agency (photo by Mohammed Mohammed)

**The Houthi forces are seen as Iran’s “ace up the sleeve”
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What impact does joining the war have now?

In recent years, the Houthi forces have been a force within Iran-built “Axis of Resistance” that has considerable deterrent potential. They have launched missiles and drones at Israel, and can also severely disrupt shipping there by launching attacks in the Red Sea.

Precisely because of this, the organization’s restraint in the current war is even more thought-provoking. At a time when Iran is suffering large-scale airstrikes, other groups allied with Tehran—such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or militia forces based in Iraq—have already entered the war, while the Houthi forces have not carried out combat actions.

Unlike other militia groups in the region, although the Houthi forces work closely with Iran, their relationship is more geared toward exchanging interests. Even so, threats to the Tehran regime also threaten the survival of the Houthi forces. Therefore, the Houthi forces’ inaction may be part of Iran’s strategic considerations as well—because Iran does not want to play its “ace up the sleeve” too early.

The reason for saying so is that Iran follows a strategy of step-by-step escalation in the war, constantly increasing losses for the enemy. In Tehran’s strategic logic, using all options at the same time is wrong. Ahmad Najee of the International Crisis Group said, “Iranians believe they can manage the situation for the time being.” He said that once the conflict expands, “the Houthi forces will get involved.”

To counter the United States and Israel, Iran currently restricts navigation through the Strait of Hormuz; this “choke point” on the world’s major energy transport route has led to a surge in international oil and gas prices. The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and serves as the “throat” for communication among the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Indian Ocean. If the Houthi forces join the war and block the Strait of Mandeb, international energy supplies would suffer a “double blow.”

Taking Saudi crude oil exports as an example: because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, Saudi Arabia is stepping up “east-to-west shipments,” sending more crude from its eastern oilfields via pipeline to Yanbu Port on the western coast for export by rerouting through the Red Sea. Once the Houthi forces block the Strait of Mandeb, this alternate route through the Red Sea waterway would also become “choked.”

On the 21st, U.S. President Trump threatened Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else the United States would strike and destroy Iran’s “various power stations.” But after that, he changed his wording, saying that the U.S. and Iran held talks and that the U.S. decided to postpone the strike. According to U.S. officials, the Trump administration is considering using ground operations to seize Halq Island, which it views as the “lifeline” of Iran’s oil exports, forcing Iran to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

A few days ago, a military source in Iran said that the Strait of Mandeb is one of the world’s most important strategic straits: “If the Americans want to use foolish actions to resolve the Strait of Hormuz (navigation issue), they should be careful not to add yet another strait to their own troubles and predicaments.”

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Source: Xinhua International Top News, CCTV News, Reference News

Editor: Wang Cong

Proofreader: Wang Gensheng

Duty Supervisor: Zhong Yuqin

Reviewed: Shi Yinan