#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 All major indices surge, BTC breaks through 72k. What's next, should you chase now?

After a market rally, where is the money?
On the early morning of April 8, you might have seen a flood of "all indices surge" news: Bitcoin rose, US stocks rose, and Japanese and Korean markets also gained. The reason is straightforward—good news from US-Iran ceasefire negotiations.

But now the question is: after this wave of gains, can the money stay? Is there still profit to be made?

How did this rally happen?
Let's start with the background. At the end of February this year, the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, and the war began. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transportation route, was effectively semi-blocked. Global oil prices surged nearly 50% within a few weeks, with Brent crude approaching $120 per barrel. Oil prices skyrocketed, inflation expectations rose, and global stock markets and cryptocurrencies took heavy hits—S&P 500 fell over 4.6% in Q1, and Bitcoin dropped about 40% from its high, falling below $65,000.

The turning point came in early April. Trump hinted that "we are very likely to reach an agreement with Iran before the final deadline on the 7th," and Pakistan, acting as mediator, proposed a ceasefire framework—immediate ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and final negotiations within 15-20 days, including Iran's commitment to abandon nuclear weapons and the US lifting some sanctions.

Once the news broke, the market exploded. On April 6, Bitcoin surged nearly 5% in a single day, regaining the $70,000 level; Ethereum rose over 6%; South Korea's KOSPI index jumped more than 2%, Samsung Electronics rose nearly 4% in one day.

By early April 8, as negotiations gained further momentum, Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran within two weeks, and Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz. The crypto market continued to rally, with Bitcoin rebounding to $72k. Under the long and short squeeze, over 80,000 traders were liquidated, with losses exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars.

The logic behind this rally is simple: war ends → oil prices fall → inflation pressure eases → rate cut expectations return → risk assets are bought again.

Can it continue? Three key points to watch

1. Will the ceasefire agreement really be implemented?
This is the most critical variable, no doubt.
The current market rally is actually pricing in "ceasefire expectations," not the "actual ceasefire." The gap between these two is huge. Over the past month, several signals of a ceasefire have appeared—after Trump signaled on March 31, US stocks rose over 2%, NASDAQ up 3.8% in a day; but immediately on April 1, Trump said "we will continue to strike Iran hard in the next two to three weeks," the market plummeted, and Bitcoin fell back below $66,000 overnight, with over 140k traders liquidated and over $400 million evaporated.
This kind of "one sentence reverses the market" scenario has happened at least three times. So, as long as the ceasefire agreement isn't officially signed, this rally could be reversed by a single piece of negative news at any time.

2. Can oil prices really fall?
After a ceasefire, the market's biggest hope is a sharp drop in oil prices. If oil prices fall, inflation pressures can be substantially eased, and the Federal Reserve might resume rate cuts.
However, Goldman Sachs has warned that even if the conflict eases, international oil prices are likely to stay high for a long time. During the war, much of the Middle East's energy infrastructure was damaged; for example, the UAE's global aluminum smelting plant was severely damaged, and it could take up to a year to resume production. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, shipping insurance, crew confidence, and navigation safety assessments will need time to recover.
If oil prices don't fall, inflation won't ease, and rate cuts will be just talk. Without rate cuts, this rebound will be hard to turn into a true bull market—more like an oversold bounce.

3. Will the Fed's rate cut expectations return?
This is the fundamental driver for cryptocurrencies to stay strong long-term.
Analyst Bernstein clearly states that Bitcoin has shown signs of bottoming out and reiterates a target price of $150k by the end of 2026—but one key condition is that the Fed's rate cut expectations can return. Analysts also point out that a bullish scenario requires "confirmed and sustained ceasefire, bringing oil prices below $100," along with the expected passage of the US "Clarity Act" in late April, providing regulatory certainty. Both conditions are indispensable.
Currently, the Cleveland Fed President has explicitly supported maintaining interest rates "at current levels for a considerable time," and the Fed's pace of rate cuts will not accelerate in the short term.

Should you chase now?
Honestly: this rally has made short-term traders money, but chasing now is extremely risky.
There are three reasons:
First, the rally is mainly driven by short covering, forced liquidations that amplified the gains, not by a large influx of new capital.
Second, negotiations could reverse at any moment; Trump's words are the biggest uncertainty in the market.
Third, Bitcoin's current price (around $72k) hasn't even returned to the level before the war broke out in late February. The so-called "big rally" is only a partial recovery from the deep pit.
If you hold positions, reducing your holdings and taking profits now is a reasonable choice.
If you're out of the market waiting for an opportunity, it's better to wait for a clearer signal: a formal ceasefire agreement, a substantial drop in oil prices below $100, and continuous net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Only when these three conditions are met will a new genuine trend begin.
Markets are never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is patience to act at the right time. This emotional, news-driven rally is fun to watch, but before placing big bets, better to wait and see.