Last night to today, the tone suddenly changed. Iran accepted a two-week ceasefire, Trump temporarily paused strikes, and funds flooded in, causing Bitcoin to surge straight up to $72.7k.

Now, the most important thing to watch isn't the candlestick chart, but the glaring "two weeks" written in the ceasefire agreement—are we heading for risk aversion? The real major variable is still on the way; Iran's ultimatum two weeks from now is the true game-changer.

To be honest, this sharp rise is driven by only two factors: geopolitics and short squeeze.

Last week, the shorts were extremely crowded. AI quantitative models were almost entirely short above $68k, and even many crypto traders were building net short positions near $70k. Once the ceasefire news broke, shorts were forced to cover, triggering a buying frenzy. Meanwhile, ETF net inflows hit $471 million in a single day, the highest since February, and institutional funds are entering the market simultaneously.

In summary, the ceasefire news triggered a short squeeze, but the true supply-demand reversal has not yet arrived.