Just noticed coffee futures had a solid bounce on Wednesday after getting hammered down. Arabica recovered from that 7.25-month low and closed up about 1%, while robusta popped 1.44%. The oversold conditions finally triggered some short-covering, which makes sense after three straight weeks of selling pressure.

The supply story is pretty wild right now. Brazil's about to harvest a record crop - up 17.2% year-over-year to 66.2 million bags - and Vietnam's exports are surging too, up 38% in January alone. That's been crushing prices. But here's the thing: Colombia's production is down 34% year-over-year, and Brazil actually exported less in January than a year ago, down 42%. So there's some mixed signals in the supply picture.

ICE inventories have been recovering though, which kept the pressure on. Arabica stocks bounced back to 461k bags in early January after hitting lows, and robusta climbed to 4,662 lots. The USDA's projecting world production will hit a record 178.8 million bags for 2025/26, but ending stocks are expected to drop 5.4%. Anyway, Wednesday's move looked like pure technical relief after getting so oversold. Worth watching if this holds or if the supply concerns pull prices back down again.