#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Can the “market rebound” brought by the ceasefire last? How can ordinary investors protect their principal and avoid the risks of chasing highs?

Recently, under third-party mediation, the involved parties reached a short-term ceasefire agreement. The core contents of this ceasefire include suspending military operations, initiating negotiations at designated times and places, and making temporary arrangements for passage in specific areas. It is worth noting that all parties claim to achieve their strategic goals, but this agreement is only a temporary ceasefire and not an official peace treaty. Deep-seated issues such as nuclear concerns, sanctions games, and regional conflicts remain unresolved.

Commodity Market Response

(1) Crude Oil Market The energy sector is the most sensitive to the ceasefire news. Key straits handle significant global crude oil shipping volumes. Previously, the market had already priced in some geopolitical risk premiums. After the ceasefire news, international oil prices dropped sharply. As of 9:00 on April 8, 2026, the international crude oil price was $94.60 per barrel, down $14.80 from the previous trading day, a decline of 13.53%. This price drop is a short-term release of geopolitical risk premiums, not a trend reversal. On one hand, the ceasefire is only a negotiation buffer, and core conflicts have not been substantively resolved, so supply disruption risks still exist. On the other hand, major oil-producing countries’ capacity policies still support oil prices. The global supply and demand fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, with future trends depending on negotiation progress and the implementation of agreements.

(2) Gold Market In contrast to the decline in crude oil and the stock markets, spot gold prices have risen significantly. Market expectations that risk aversion would ease after the ceasefire and lead to a gold price correction proved incorrect. As of 10:00 on April 8, 2026, London Gold was quoted at $4,812.39 per ounce. Although there was a slight pullback, the overall recent increase was notable, with intraday gains of up to 3.19%. It is now quoted at $4,856.49 per ounce. This phenomenon reflects that current gold pricing has shifted to a multi-factor framework including “monetary policy expectations + global central bank gold purchases + monetary credit cycles.” While the ceasefire temporarily alleviates short-term risk aversion, the decline in oil prices and the resulting inflation expectations have strengthened market anticipation of major central bank policy adjustments. The actual interest rate expectations after long-term government bond rate changes remain a key support for gold prices. In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain high and volatile.

Stock, Forex, and Bond Market Dynamics

(1) Stock Market The ceasefire news has boosted global risk appetite, leading to a broad rally in global stock markets. Major Asian stock markets opened higher and closed in the green. The three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.26%. U.S. stock markets performed positively, with major stock index futures turning from decline to rise, especially in the tech sector. Storage chip-related stocks collectively advanced, with some leading companies rising for several consecutive days. Sector performance showed clear differentiation: energy stocks mostly rose, airlines declined across the board, chip stocks mostly gained, and Chinese concept stocks slightly fell overall. This divergence reflects different industry interpretations of the ceasefire and indicates that markets have partially priced in the positive expectations in advance.

(2) Forex and Bond Markets The foreign exchange market shows a “weakening dollar, rebound in non-dollar currencies” pattern. As of 9:00 on April 8, 2026, the US Dollar Index was 99.0014, down 0.6515 points from the previous day, a decline of 0.65%, breaking below a key level. The core support for the dollar remains US economic resilience and the monetary policy cycle. The regional situation cooling has not changed its relative advantage. The Dollar Index is unlikely to trend downward significantly; short-term fluctuations are mainly emotional releases. The bond market shows “short-term volatility, long-term stability,” with some countries’ long-term government bond yields declining, reflecting a reassessment of global economic prospects. Overall, the core pricing power in the bond market still depends on major central banks’ monetary policies. The ceasefire only causes short-term sentiment disturbances and does not alter the medium- and long-term trend.

Summary:

Based on the overall market performance, this market rebound caused by the ceasefire is mainly emotional recovery and is insufficient to trigger a trend reversal. In the short term, Asian stock markets may rebound, but details of the agreement are still unclear, and concerns about key passageways remain. Market volatility will stay high. Investors should focus on negotiation progress, key passageway openings, market sentiment, and changes in industry fundamentals. Energy-importing markets and tech stocks may become short-term focal points. This ceasefire event has a significant short-term impact on global markets, but deep-rooted conflicts will still take time to resolve.

For investors, the current market presents both challenges and opportunities. Rational analysis, close attention to negotiation developments, and fundamental changes are essential. Avoid over-chasing or panic selling, so as to grasp investment directions amid a complex market environment.