TACO trading has won again. Can we trust this rebound?

This market rebound is essentially one thing—once again betting that Donald Trump will "hold back."
Initially taking a tough stance on Iran, then announcing a two-week pause on actions, a classic "TACO script": pressure first, then easing. The result is straightforward—crude oil plummets, US stock futures rise, and risk assets collectively rebound.
But the focus isn't on the event itself, but on two changes:
First, risk premium quickly declines, and the market shifts from "risk-averse mode" back to "risk appetite";
Second, the capital structure is changing. Trend-following funds like CTAs, which had been selling continuously, are starting to turn around and go long, potentially triggering a chase rally.
The direction of capital flow is also very clear—prioritizing the "most certain" areas, such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and other core AI computing stocks. The logic is simple: driven by orders and capital expenditure, with strong earnings certainty, making it the most confident sector for institutional buying.
But one thing to keep in mind:
This wave of market movement is fundamentally about trading the "TACO expectation," not a fundamental reversal. If any event deviates from the script, volatility will quickly backlash.
Chief's view:
Currently, this is a sentiment-driven rebound window, not the start of a long-term bull trend. You can participate in the trend, but don’t treat it as a long-term logic. The real turning point isn’t now, but "two weeks from now." In one sentence: it’s tradable, but not trustworthy. $ETH