Geopolitical Hotspot Sparks Explosion, $120 Is Not a Pipe Dream

Crude oil has retreated to $113, just one step away from $120. Whether it can break through tonight depends on two immediate signals:

1. Is the US-Iran military friction "conclusive"? Currently, it's only verbal threats. If incidents like drone shootdowns or tanker attacks occur, panic premiums could instantly push oil prices up by 5%-8%.
2. OPEC+ response speed: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have remaining spare capacity of about 3 million barrels per day. But if they choose to wait (or even use the situation to raise prices) instead of increasing output immediately to stabilize the market, $120 will be within reach.

On the technical side, WTI weekly chart has broken above the ascending triangle, MACD has a bullish crossover with increasing volume, and there is no significant resistance until around $125. Fundamentally, US strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to a 40-year low, and the need to replenish stocks becomes a "price-boosting factor." Overall, the probability of reaching $120 tonight (April 7) exceeds 60%, but beware of a quick pullback after the surge—after all, Trump doesn't want gasoline prices to spiral out of control before the election and may signal a "temporary cooling."

Trading suggestion: Short-term, consider light long positions with strict stop-loss; medium-term, monitor US-Iran negotiations. If tensions ease, oil prices could quickly retrace to $105.
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