Institution: The launch of Arrow 2 is imminent, SpaceX advances IPO, and global commercial spaceflight is entering a scale-up phase.

On March 31, Ai Jian Securities released a research report on the machinery and equipment industry. The report said that the launch of Falcon Arrow 2 is imminent, and SpaceX is pushing ahead with its IPO.

This week (2026/03/23–2026/03/27), the Commercial Aerospace Index (886078.TI) fell by 1.64%, and the sector as a whole maintained a choppy trading pattern. In terms of valuation, the index’s PE decreased by 2.32% month over month, and the current valuation is at the 3.95% percentile over the past three months. Among the commercial aerospace sector’s top performers this week, the top three gainers were Tengjing Technology (688195.SH) (+25.58%), Shenjian Co., Ltd. (002361.SZ) (+21.46%), and Gukong Technology (300620.SZ) (+18.72%). The top three decliners were Zhonghuan Hailu (301040.SZ) (-29.59%), San’an Optoelectronics (600703.SH) (-24.06%), and Guanglian Aviation (300900.SZ) (-18.48%).

1）China: ①On March 16, West Test Test (301306.SZ) and Triangle Defense (300775.SZ) issued an announcement: Xi’an Triangle Defense Co., Ltd., Xi’an West Test Test Technology Co., Ltd., Xi’an Rui Tou Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and Shaanxi Aerospace and Space Power Research Institute Co., Ltd. jointly invested RMB 500 million to establish the Western Aerospace Technology (000901.SZ) (Shaanxi) Co., Ltd. (tentative name). The joint venture plans to become a group company integrating satellite design and manufacturing, research, development, manufacturing, testing, and launching of launch vehicles, as well as satellite TT&C and data applications. This move is expected to help drive the development of Shaanxi’s commercial aerospace industry and form an industrial cluster with well-developed functions. ②Ziwei Technology showcased the unmanned commercial space station V1.0: the space station (B300 composite) consists of two spacecraft, Di Er No. 6 (B300-L03 station-keeping version) and Di Er No. 11 (B300-F01 return version). It is planned to launch and enter orbit in an integrated manner as a composite in June 2026. The two spacecraft will conduct rendezvous and docking tests in orbit; after Di Er No. 11 operates independently in orbit for about one month, it will return to Earth. Di Er No. 6 will continue to operate in orbit for about 1 year, providing a long-term stable on-orbit validation platform for fields such as microgravity science, space life sciences, space materials science, and space new-technology validation.

2）Global: ①SpaceX plans to formally launch its first public offering (IPO) in June this year, targeting a valuation of USD 1.75 trillion and expecting to raise USD 50 billion to USD 75 billion.

If it successfully lists based on the aforementioned amount raised, it will set a new record for the scale of financing in global capital markets. However, the actual fund-raising amount and valuation will be finalized in the weeks before the IPO. It is reported that SpaceX’s IPO preparation has entered a substantive stage; choosing to submit a confidential filing in March and initiate the SEC review process is intended to pave the way for a formal listing in June. The company’s listing location is clearly leaning toward Nasdaq, and “being included in the Nasdaq 100 index as soon as possible after listing” is also set as one of the core conditions. Once successfully included, it is expected to attract a large amount of passive capital allocation. ②NASA is re-evaluating its commercial space station program and plans to procure a new space station core module.

Global commercial aerospace is moving from the technology validation stage to the scaling-up stage. On one hand, SpaceXStarship’s commercialized launch plan is advancing step by step, and heavy-lift capability has entered a sustained validation phase; on the other hand, with China’s commercial aerospace being driven by policy support and improved industrial supporting capabilities, more commercial aerospace landing application scenarios are starting to appear, further expanding rocket launch demand. As satellite batch production and launch demand are gradually released, industry momentum is expected to transmit upward to the upstream.

1）According to Hanghua Net, the recoverable liquid launch vehicle Falcon Arrow 2 planned by Zhongke Aerospace is set to make its maiden flight in late March this year. It will carry the initial sample of China’s Qingzhou No. 1 cargo spacecraft to implement the launch; going forward, it will take on tasks such as building a satellite internet network and major national missions, and within this year it has already been approved for 4 launches. Commercial aerospace rocket launch payloads are no longer limited to communication satellites. If, going forward, commercial aerospace space computing power and commercial space station demand gradually take root, demand for commercial aerospace launch services will further expand, driving technological iteration in the construction and launch of commercial aerospace rockets as well as the satellite manufacturing industry.

2）SpaceX is advancing its IPO plan, and more updates on actual progress will follow. Previously, the company’s valuation in internal share transfers at the end of 2025 had reached about USD 800 billion. Due to changes in expectations for the rocket launch services market, the company’s valuation may still increase further. As a core company in the global commercial aerospace and satellite internet sector, SpaceX is expected to provide an important valuation anchor for the industry.