"Hadn't bought such cheap pork in years!" Some supermarkets are already as low as 5 yuan per jin. Will pork prices drop further?

Ask AI · Pork prices keep falling for seven straight weeks—how will supply and demand imbalances evolve?

Zhongxin Jingwei, March 28 (Yan Shuxin) “Pork is cheaper. The original price was 5.99 yuan per jin—now it’s 20% off.” On the evening of the 27th, inside a certain chain supermarket in Tongzhou District, Beijing, staff were telling passersby.

At the supermarket, Zhongxin Jingwei saw that the cheapest pork is foreleg meat, priced at 5.99 yuan per jin; after the 20% discount, it is 4.792 yuan per jin. The prices of hind leg meat, belly meat, and spare ribs are relatively higher. Among them, hind leg meat and belly meat are both 7.99 yuan per jin. The prices of fore ribs, mid ribs, and rib ribs are 11.9 yuan per jin, 16.9 yuan per jin, and 24.9 yuan per jin, respectively.

Pork being sold in a chain supermarket in Tongzhou District, Beijing on the evening of March 27 Zhongxin Jingwei Photo by Yan Shuxin

“Before the Spring Festival, the lowest pork here was 7 yuan per jin. At the time, I already thought that was very low, but I didn’t expect that it’s now below 5 yuan. I haven’t bought pork this cheap in years.” Ms. Ma, who often buys pork at the supermarket mentioned above, told Zhongxin Jingwei.

Recently, news about pork price cuts has attracted attention.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on March 27, the national average wholesale market price of pork for agricultural products was 15.73 yuan per kilogram, up 0.5% from the previous day. Compared with 18.18 yuan per kilogram before the Spring Festival on February 14, it fell by 13.48%. Compared with 17.59 yuan per kilogram on December 31, 2025, it fell by 10.57%.

In addition, a monitoring report released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on weekly price trends in the national wholesale markets for agricultural products shows that since the week of January 29, 2026, the wholesale average price of pork has declined for seven straight weeks. Specifically, for the week of March 20 to 26, 2026, the wholesale average price of pork was 15.84 yuan per kilogram, down 1.9% month-on-month and down 23.4% year-on-year. Compared with the wholesale average price of 18.61 yuan per kilogram for the week of January 23 to 29, 2026, it fell by 14.88%.

Also according to data from the national key agricultural product market information platform under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of March 26, the ex-factory price index for lean carcass white-strip hogs had fallen to a new low since the same period in 2024.

Lean carcass white-strip hog ex-factory price index Source: Screenshot from the national key agricultural product market information platform of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

Behind the pork price drop is the sustained weakness in hog prices.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, during the week of March 9 to 15, 2026, the average procurement price of hogs for designated slaughter enterprises was 12.16 yuan per kilogram, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 25.8% year-on-year. The average ex-factory price of carcass meat was 16.05 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0% month-on-month and down 25.3% year-on-year.

Based on data disclosed by breeding enterprises, in February 2026, the average sales price of commodity pigs for New Hope was 11.45 yuan per kilogram, down 8.25% month-on-month and down 21.79% year-on-year. For Muyuan Co., the average sales price of commodity pigs was 11.59 yuan per kilogram, down 7.8% month-on-month and down 18.72% year-on-year. For Wen’s Co., the average sales price of fattening pigs was 11.62 yuan per kilogram, down 8.86% month-on-month and down 22.33% year-on-year. In addition, the hog sales prices in February for Tianbang Food, Zhengbang Technology, Sinograin Group, Jixing Animal Husbandry, and Dorian Agricultural also fell month-on-month.

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and chief analyst for pork monitoring and early warning across the full industrial chain under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told Zhongxin Jingwei that the core reason the pig prices have continued to fall is that supply is abundant, compounded by the post–Spring Festival consumption off-season.

“Under normal circumstances, after the Spring Festival through March and April are the low season for pork consumption,” Zhu Zengyong said.

In a weekly report on the monitoring of ex-factory prices of lean carcass white-strip pork for Week 11 of 2026 (March 9 to 13, 2026), the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also mentioned the reasons for the pork price drop: “Small-scale farmers and large-scale breeding farms actively sell off their hogs; slaughter enterprises have a relatively high operating rate, and are cautious about processing and storing; thus, the supply of carcass pork is ample, while consumption shows no obvious improvement. As the sales pace of slaughter enterprises slows down, carcass pork prices fall.”

According to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, since June 2025, the volume of hog slaughter nationwide has continued to rise. In December 2025, slaughter volume reached 49.1 million head, up 23.6% month-on-month. From January to February 2026, the slaughter volume for hog slaughter enterprises designated by location was 75.81 million head, up 21.9% year-on-year.

As for the subsequent trend, Zhu Zengyong said, “Judging from the current situation, pig prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level for some time. There is no possibility of a rebound, and the likelihood of a major further drop is also relatively small.”

(For more leads on reporting, please contact the author of this article Yan Shuxin: yanshuxin@chinanews.com.cn) (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views expressed in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; enter the market with caution.)

责任编辑：Wei Wei Li Zhongyuan