Date: April 7, 2026

Short-term Impact

1)
· Event: The United States sets a "deadline" demanding Iran immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or face large-scale infrastructure strikes (power, bridges). 
· Impact: Entering the "war window" → oil prices could spike at any time, global stock markets face sudden systemic risks.
· Focus: Whether the first wave of airstrikes occurs after the deadline (key turning point).

2)
· Event: Iran states that if attacked, it will conduct "widespread and devastating retaliation," explicitly refusing to make concessions. 
· Impact: The probability of conflict escalation increases significantly → gold and the US dollar strengthen, risk assets come under pressure.
· Focus: Whether cross-regional strikes occur (Israel/Gulf countries).

3)
· Event: The US and Israel continue airstrikes on multiple locations in Iran; Iran's missile retaliations have already affected Israeli cities. 
· Impact: Full-scale conflict → markets enter "war pricing mode," oil prices and military-industrial assets strengthen.
· Focus: Whether the conflict expands to energy facilities (which will determine the oil price ceiling).

4)
· Event: Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely low, with only about 15 ships permitted to pass (far below the usual 100+). 
· Impact: Supply has not yet recovered → oil prices remain high and volatile, shipping and insurance premiums continue to rise.
· Focus: Whether daily passage volume continues to increase.

5)
· Event: Asian airlines begin reducing flights, increasing fuel carriage and mid-route refueling due to fuel shortages. 
· Impact: Energy shocks propagate to the real economy → aviation and tourism are under pressure, inflation expectations further strengthen.
· Focus: The scale of flight reductions and trends in fuel prices.

6)
· Event: Oil prices hover at high levels (Brent around $109), with markets repeatedly debating ceasefire versus escalation. 
· Impact: Markets enter a "news-driven" phase → volatility surges, trend trading becomes more difficult.
· Focus: Whether a substantive ceasefire agreement or clear escalation signals emerge.

⸻

Long-term Impact

7)
· Event: The IMF explicitly states that the war has caused a roughly 13% decline in global oil supply and will revise down global growth forecasts. 
· Impact: The world enters a "high inflation + low growth" combination → both stocks and bonds face pressure, resource assets benefit long-term.
· Focus: The magnitude of the IMF's official economic forecast revision.

8)
· Event: The Hormuz blockade leads to economic divergence among Middle Eastern countries (some see income surge, others drop by over 70%). 
· Impact: Regional power restructuring → re-pricing of Middle Eastern assets and sovereign risks.
· Focus: Whether this triggers regional financial instability or debt risks.

9)
· Event: Analysis shows that even if a ceasefire occurs, restoring oil transportation and energy supply will still take several months. 
· Impact: Supply recovery lag → long-term upward shift in oil price center, rather than short-term shock.
· Focus: Time needed for oil tanker operations to resume and inventory changes.

10)
· Event: The United Nations warns that the Hormuz crisis could push millions worldwide into poverty and food insecurity. 
· Impact: Energy shocks spill over into "global macro risks" → volatility in emerging markets and commodities intensifies.
· Focus: Food prices and capital outflows from developing countries.