I noticed an interesting analysis by Raul Pal about macroeconomics and crypto. Generally, most people say the market is dead, but he sees a completely different picture.

The whole point is global liquidity. Raul Pal points out a 90% correlation between liquidity and BTC since 2012. This is not a coincidence — it’s a system. The correlation with NDX is even higher, at 97%. Annual liquidity growth remains around 10%, with no signs of slowing down.

Financial conditions measured by GMI are about six months ahead of global liquidity and remain accommodative. However, liquidity in the US was squeezed during that period, creating a bearish range. But over the past three months, the situation has started to change — the indicator is rapidly recovering. This is roughly three months ahead of cryptocurrencies.

Raul Pal highlights several growth factors. The business cycle is accelerating — this is the main driver for returns and risk. The eSLR mechanism allows banks to increase liquidity through lending and bonds. This is also growing and will continue to grow. Tax refunds are flowing into bank accounts, boosting lending readiness. The US is lowering interest rates, which increases disposable income and risk appetite.

Then there’s the CLARITY Act. Once it passes, there will be a huge influx of capital into crypto. Banks and asset managers have long wanted to use this technology. The law will simply give them the green light.

Stablecoins are developing rapidly — issuance has increased by 50% over the year and continues to grow. Trading volumes have reached trillions of dollars. This indicates real demand.

Support for crypto from the US government is at an all-time high. Agencies will gradually implement blockchain technology, opening up a completely new market.

What’s interesting is that the market is currently in panic. By most metrics, this is the most oversold point in history. Raul Pal sees this as an opportunity, not the end. When liquidity starts working at full capacity and the CLARITY Act passes, the movement could be significant. BTC is currently trading around 66.82K, but if all these factors align, the numbers could be very different.