Just caught up with some interesting technical analysis on gold that's worth paying attention to. Avi Gilburt from ElliottWaveTrader has been laying out some scenarios that could seriously shift how we're looking at precious metals right now.

So here's the thing - gold bounced back above $4,700 after that brutal monthly drop, and we're currently sitting around $4,775. But according to Avi Gilburt's technical read, this recovery might just be a head fake. He's mapping out two possible paths forward, and honestly, the bearish case looks pretty compelling.

The first scenario is straightforward: gold hits resistance around current levels and rolls over. But the second one is where it gets tricky. Avi Gilburt mentioned that if prices break through $4,800 and rally to $5,200, that could actually be the most dangerous setup - it's the kind of move that makes everyone think the correction is done when really it's just getting started. That's when you could see a drop all the way to $3,800, which would represent a 20% pullback from here.

What's interesting is how Avi Gilburt is approaching this from pure technical analysis rather than macro narratives. He's watching the charts, not the headlines.

On the silver side, similar story. If it stays below the March peak, he's looking for a move down to $53.50. But for longer-term players, anything under $60 could be worth accumulating, even with the possibility of it testing $40 first. He specifically mentioned that over the next decade, silver below $60 represents solid entry points.

Beyond just the metals themselves, mining stocks caught my attention in his analysis. Some are already bottomed, others are still working through corrections, but certain mining equities could actually outperform both gold and silver in the next rally depending on their technical setup.

On the broader commodities front, Avi Gilburt expects oil to run higher short-term but then get hit hard later in the year, possibly dropping below $50.

The key takeaway is that we're likely in a correction phase that could have more downside, not upside. Definitely worth watching the technical levels he laid out.