Strait of Hormuz Shows "New Signs": 4 Million Barrels of Crude Oil and the First LNG Ship "Seem" to Have Passed, Following the "Southern Route" Near the Oman Coast

Three Omani-flagged vessels appear to be bypassing the Iran-controlled northern route through the “southern route” across the Strait of Hormuz—this is the largest single-day crude oil outflow since the Iran war, and it is also the first attempt by an LNG carrier to set sail, but the situation is far from calm.

Local time on Thursday, April 2, according to Bloomberg, three vessels broadcasting Omani ship information—two supertankers and one LNG carrier—seem to be sailing along the Omani coastline, taking the waterway south of the Strait of Hormuz to head east into the strait. This route is clearly a deviation from the northern route used by most vessels in recent days—i.e., the shipping lane between Iran’s Larak Island and Qeshm Island.

All three ships are operated by Oman Ship Management Company, and all are the largest tankers. If the LNG carrier succeeds in passing, it would be the first liquefied natural gas vessel to leave the Persian Gulf since the Iran war.

4 million barrels: the biggest recent single-day outflow, but still “just a slice”

Energy and commodities reporter Javier Blas posted on X: “All signs indicate that today at least around 4 million barrels of crude oil have flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz—this is the largest single-day outflow since the first day of the third day of the Gulf War.”

But he also pointed out: “It’s nothing more than a slice of the 20 million barrels that normally flows out on any day before the war.”

The two tankers each carry about 2 million barrels of crude oil. One of them loaded in late February in Saudi Arabia, with the destination shown as the Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar—this port connects to a pipeline serving western China; the other loads Abu Dhabi crude oil, and its destination has not been disclosed. Tracking data for the LNG carrier shows it is in a loaded-out (empty) state.

All three vessels stopped sending automatic location signals at about 9:30 a.m. London time; at that time, they were nearing or bypassing the top of Oman’s Musandam Peninsula. Analysts said it is still unclear whether the crossing has been completed because signal interference and deception are severe in that area, but a normal crossing usually takes several hours.

“Southern route” vs. “Northern route”: bypassing Iran and taking deeper waters

The significance of this “southern route” is that it bypasses the northern shipping lanes that Iran effectively controls.

The northern route crosses between Iran’s islands, where the water is shallower and turns are sharper. For fully loaded supertankers and LNG carriers, the northern route may not have been suitable in physical terms in the first place.

The report said that since the conflict broke out, the Strait of Hormuz has basically been under a blockade. Iran previously only allowed a small number of vessels related to “friendly countries” to pass, and they were required to take the northern route. The three vessels’ use of the southern route is a new variable worth watching.

Iran and Oman draft “joint management” agreement, to collect transit fees

Meanwhile, there are new developments on the diplomatic front.

According to Iran’s official media IRNA, Deputy Foreign Minister Garib Abadi said Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. He said: “The navigation activities of vessels transiting through this strait should be conducted under joint supervision and coordination between Iran and Oman. These arrangements are not meant to impose restrictions; they are to promote and ensure safe navigation, while providing better services for the vessels in transit.”

According to Xinhua News Agency, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Khalifa also said the UAE is willing to participate in any measures to ensure navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz, calling the strait “an important international waterway bound by international law.”

In addition, according to CCTV News, on April 2, local time, Garib Abadi said Iran is studying imposing transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said that the fee standards are still under study and the exact amount has not been determined.

However, Garib Abadi also emphasized: “I must point out that we are now in a state of war, and we cannot expect pre-war rules to apply to wartime conditions. What we face are two aggressor states and other countries that support aggression; therefore, naturally, we need to impose restrictions and bans.”

According to rumors, Iran is trying to set up a transit-fee collection mechanism, planning to charge up to $2 million per transiting vessel.

After this statement was released, the three major U.S. stock index futures briefly flipped higher during the day, and Brent crude futures’ gains narrowed from about 8.5% before the open to around 4.1%.

Severe divergence between spot and futures: the market is torn between “easing” and “scarcity”

Goldman Sachs commodities expert Tallulah Adams analyzed that the current energy market has a significant “spot-futures divergence”: the futures market is increasingly pricing in expectations of a ceasefire, while the spot market continues to price persistent supply scarcity.

Key data is as follows:

• The firm estimates that after policy responses and before supply-demand adjustments, the net loss in global commercial crude oil inventories is 11.4 million barrels per day

• Daily average flow through the Strait of Hormuz is down 95% from normal levels (4-day moving average)

• Since the outbreak of the conflict, global visible crude inventories have fallen by a cumulative 130 million barrels, consuming 30% of the inventory increase for all of 2025

On the spot side, Dated Brent (North Sea spot crude oil, the world’s most important physical crude pricing benchmark) briefly touched $141.37 per barrel, the highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, on the futures side, Brent crude fell by about $2 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs said that professional physical market customers generally believe the current futures price is underpriced relative to the scale of actual supply disruptions, and they think that even without further escalation, the current imbalance in supply and demand is enough to trigger acute supply tightness.

The situation is still escalating; easing signals are limited

It needs to be noted that the backdrop behind the above-mentioned “easing signs” is that the overall situation is still continuing to escalate.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump claimed in his speech on Wednesday night that he would “strike Iran extremely violently” within the next two to three weeks, without mentioning a ceasefire.

After that, Iran’s highest bridge—connecting Tehran and Karaj—was destroyed. According to a report cited by Xinhua News Agency, the target of the U.S.-led strike that day was the Beykaye Road Bridge. The bridge is a flagship project of Iran’s engineering community, known as one of the most complex engineering achievements in the world, and it is core infrastructure for the Tehran–Karaj transportation corridor. It was originally planned to be officially put into operation soon.

Trump later posted on social media: “Iran’s largest bridge collapses with a thunderous boom, never usable again—there’s more to come!” He also issued a warning in all capital letters: “Now is the time for Iran to make an agreement—while there is still time, while there is still something left where this could have become a great country.”

After Trump’s speech, Dated Brent surged again to $141.37 per barrel.

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