Long-term Bitcoin investors keep selling off. A brief surge above $90,000 still cannot change the downward trend.

Lianhezaobao (Caixin) December 18 report (Editor: Malan). Bitcoin is entering a sustained downward phase, and one important reason is that long-term holders are still continuously selling the coin.

According to a report from K33 Research, compared with early 2023, the amount of Bitcoin that has been at least two years without flowing into exchanges has fallen by 1.6 million BTC, worth about $140 billion. Only in 2025, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin has re-entered circulation after lying dormant for more than a year.

Meanwhile, the market’s ability to absorb these Bitcoins returning to circulation is gradually weakening. In the past year, the ETF has absorbed most of the Bitcoin, but it has now shifted to net outflows of funds, and retail traders’ enthusiasm is also at a low point.

Ergonia research director Chris Newhouse noted that the market is going through a slow decline characterized by continuous spot selling and insufficient buy-side liquidity, which creates a gradual type of drop that is harder to reverse than a leverage-driven, capitulation-style selloff.

Long periods of consolidation

On Wednesday, the Bitcoin price briefly rose to $90,000, but traders believe this was due to the closing of large short positions, after which Bitcoin’s price also resumed its downtrend. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $86,000.

K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde said that, unlike previous cycles, this time Bitcoin’s price surge to highs was not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentive mechanisms, but by abundant liquidity brought by U.S. ETF investment demand. This has allowed early holders to profit at six-figure prices and significantly reduced Bitcoin’s concentration among large investors.

Georgii Verbitskii, founder of the crypto investment platform TYMIO, predicts that the Bitcoin price is very likely to consolidate over a longer period of time, and he does not rule out a drop to $70,000, or even $60,000.

But Lunde believes that, based on observations of historical on-chain capital flows, as the size of Bitcoin returning to circulation approaches a certain threshold, long-term holders’ selling may be coming to an end.

He said that the selling pressure from long-term holders appears to be nearing saturation. About 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years. He expects that selling from early investors will decrease by 2026.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Bitcoin