4.3 Friday | CPI Eve + Geopolitical Turmoil, Market Logic Summary 📊

Today is Friday, and next Friday the US CPI will be announced 📅. According to the rhythm, the market should move today. If there’s no movement today, US stocks are likely to face significant pressure next week ⚠️

🟢Bitcoin📉
After breaking below the trendline, a top formation has appeared on the daily chart; if it cannot hold above 68,500, the downside space will open up, so beware of a pullback risk.

🟢Strait of Hormuz🚢
Trump yesterday said “America doesn’t need it,” a typical case of “the more we lack, the more we deny.” 🤥
Iran’s core demand is very clear: collect tolls for passage, just like no one bargains when entering the emergency room—global energy reserves are really tight, and no one dares to bargain. This barrier is not so easy to open.

🟢Result-oriented Summary🧠
Getting confused by Trump’s repeated statements? Just look at the outcome:

• US: Bomb and withdraw, leaving the mess to other countries, self-sufficient in energy → Market declines

• Iran: Unlikely to voluntarily open up, collect tolls + counter-sanctions → Global liquidity shortage, reserves exhausted leading to “sudden death” → Market declines

• The only exception: US and Iran handshake before mid-April. But Mullahs have deep-seated national hatred, making negotiations extremely difficult. Trump seems more like looking for a “fall guy to pay the bill.”

✅Trading Strategy
Long on the sky, short on the market, few chase rebounds, prioritize short positions.

✍️Chief Analyst’s personal analysis, handwritten, for reference only
If you find the logic clear, give a like 👍 to prove you’ve understood!