Chief economists of the five major financial institutions discuss economic trends: Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%.

2026 marks the beginning year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period. Since this year began, various regions and departments in our country have earnestly implemented a more proactive and constructive set of macro policies, focusing on unleashing the integrated effect of both stock policies and incremental policies. Economic activity has gotten off to a strong start, with a promising opening.

Five chief economists who were interviewed by reporters from The Securities Daily generally believe that first-quarter GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%; the Chinese economy will deliver a “strong start to the year.” The macro policies will remain tightly aligned with the annual objectives and tasks, taking a more proactive and constructive approach with coordinated, precise efforts.

“Our economy is showing a trend of a ‘strong start and a good opening.’ Major economic indicators have generally improved.” Mingming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said in an interview with reporters from The Securities Daily that in January through February, the year-on-year growth rate of value added by industrial enterprises above a designated size was 6.3%; fixed-asset investment turned from decline to growth. Among them, infrastructure investment recorded a high year-on-year growth rate of 11.4%, reflecting that investment is exhibiting a continuing positive trend. Taken together, first-quarter economic growth is expected to be close to 5%.

“Expected first-quarter GDP growth in 2026 to be 4.9%.” Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Finance and Trust Holdings and deputy president of the CITIC Research Institute, told reporters that at the start of the year, economic activity has gotten off to a strong start and shows the features of “stronger production, stronger exports, higher investment, and stable consumption.” Driven jointly by the cumulative effect of “stabilizing growth” policies and structural growth in external demand, first-quarter economic growth is expected to deliver a “strong start to the year.”

“Due to the Spring Festival-driven consumption, market demand increased in the first quarter, the CPI rose temporarily, consumption growth was boosted in tandem, overall national economic activity remained steady, and first-quarter GDP growth is expected to be around 5%.” Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open-Source Fund, said.

Chen Li, assistant to the president and chief economist of Chuan Cai Securities, and head of its research institute, said that in the first quarter, China’s macro economy got off to a strong start with a favorable opening. Key indicators stabilized, the structure continued to optimize, market expectations improved, industrial production accelerated its recovery, the equipment manufacturing sector and high-tech manufacturing sector showed strong growth momentum, the consumer market grew steadily, the price level rose moderately, employment and people’s livelihoods were well protected, new quality productive forces are being cultivated and scaled up faster, and economic operations are displaying a good trend of progressing steadily while improving in quality—laying a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target.

In 2026, the “Government Work Report” proposes that “this year’s main development targets are: economic growth of 4.5%–5%, and in actual work we will strive to achieve better outcomes,” while also clarifying that “we will implement more proactive and constructive macro policies, enhancing the foresight, targeted nature, and policy coordination.”

Chen Li expects that macro policies will always stay tightly aligned with the annual objectives and tasks, and will take a more proactive and constructive approach with coordinated, precise implementation. Fiscal policy will step up efforts to improve effectiveness, accelerate the rollout and impact of ultra-long special government bonds and policy-based financial instruments, expand effective investment, and promote consumption growth; adhere to a reasonably loose monetary policy to stabilize growth, employment, and prices, keep liquidity reasonably abundant, and lower overall financing costs. At the same time, strengthen overall coordination and linkages among industrial, science and technology, employment, and regional policies, focus on expanding domestic demand, deepening reforms, preventing risks, and improving expectations, and work to unblock bottlenecks in the economic cycle. It will promote the overlapping and synergistic benefits of stock policies and incremental policies, work to consolidate the favorable foundation for economic growth, and strive hard to secure better development outcomes.

Mingming said that regarding fiscal affairs, it will speed up the implementation progress of special-purpose bond issuance and raise the proportion used for project construction. Major projects under the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” will also be advanced earlier in construction. In terms of stimulating domestic demand, it will accelerate the implementation of the income growth plan for urban and rural residents, and also use special funds under fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand. Regarding monetary policy, it will maintain a reasonably loose stance and appropriately cut reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to release liquidity support. In addition, it will also use structural monetary policy instruments to place emphasis on promoting development in areas such as domestic demand and technology.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that it is expected that this year’s fiscal spending will continue to maintain a considerable scale, and that structural monetary policy instruments will continue to be optimized and innovated, with a clear increase in efforts to expand domestic demand.

（Source: The Securities Daily）