#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 A prophecy fulfilled! Today, gold was "knocked out" by crude oil.

Today (April 2nd), the market once again perfectly confirmed a saying: when crude oil rises, gold must die. It’s not about safe-haven demand, nor Federal Reserve jawboning. It’s just that crude oil surged dramatically, directly knocking gold down.
Let’s first look at today’s plunge. Gold in London briefly rose to $4,800 in the early session, but the intraday low hit $4,599, and by the market close in China, it was around $4,619. A single-day drop of 3.83%. Those who chased the high in the morning lost 3%–5% in a day. And what about crude oil? It surged unilaterally, reaching a new stage high.
Brent crude oil rose from $102 to $107.78 per barrel, a +6.54% increase for the day; WTI crude oil went from $100 to $106.12 per barrel, a +5.99% increase. All of this is caused by old Trump’s fault. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, combined with Trump’s inflammatory remarks, led the market to believe that oil prices would not fall in the short term.
So, the seesaw logic of crude oil and gold is back again. Crude oil rises → inflation expectations explode → real interest rates rise → gold gets hammered.
First, a core principle: crude oil is the key indicator of global inflation, often called the “mother of inflation.” Its price trend directly influences the entire chain of costs in global industry, transportation, and consumer life. When oil prices surge significantly, market inflation expectations will quickly heat up, which is the fundamental logic affecting gold’s movement.
Trump’s speech on April 2nd kept the Middle East geopolitical situation tense, increasing the transportation risk through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets worried about a supply shortage, and funds flooded in, pushing oil prices higher. The sharp rise in oil prices directly shattered the market’s optimistic expectations of slowing inflation and Fed rate cuts.
Today’s market data also confirmed this: after the big surge in oil, CME interest rate futures showed that the market’s probability of a Fed rate cut in June plummeted from 80% to less than 7%. The full-year rate cut expectation was also reduced from three to one, completely shattering the rate cut dream. For funds, with stable interest income from U.S. Treasuries and zero interest plus volatility in gold, funds naturally prefer to abandon gold and shift to Treasuries, the dollar, and other safe-haven assets. This is the direct reason why gold experienced a concentrated sell-off today.
Additionally, the previous rapid rise led to a “sell on rise” panic.
Earlier, gold rose from 4200 to 4800, a 15% increase, mostly profit-taking. As soon as there was any turbulence, traders immediately sold off.
So, what’s next?
In the short term (1–3 days), gold at 4550–4600 is a strong support level, with limited downside potential, but the rebound will be weak. The key depends on crude oil. If oil stays above 105, gold will remain weak. Only if oil drops below 100 will gold stop falling and rebound.
Long-term: central banks are still buying gold and de-dollarizing, so the bull market isn’t over—this is just a high-level shakeout triggered by crude oil.
The advice remains the same as always: don’t chase highs and get caught. Around 4600, don’t sell in panic; instead, buy gradually to lower your average cost.
For those looking to bottom fish: find your psychological price point and consider dollar-cost averaging.
In summary, today’s sharp decline in gold was not an accident; it was the surge in crude oil that reactivated the inflation and interest rate logic.