Guangzhou's real estate market experiences a "small spring" with a "two-headed heat"

Source: Nanfang Metropolis Daily

                                    ■In Guangzhou’s new home market, products with a total price of over 30 million RMB, as well as units priced between 1 million and 2 million RMB, are the hottest sellers.                                    

High-end residences priced at 30 million RMB are being snapped up, while just-need units priced between 1 million and 2 million RMB account for 30%, leaving homes in the mid-price range feeling “awkward”

A “brief spring-like” rebound has appeared in Guangzhou’s property market. New home transaction volumes in March have risen markedly, and the trend of market segmentation is becoming even more pronounced. On the one hand, the high-end residential market with total prices above 30 million RMB is very active, with luxury penthouse projects frequently seeing large deals. On the other hand, just-need projects in the 1 million to 2 million RMB total-price segment, supported by strong cost performance, have surpassed a 30% market share. An industry insider noted that the market currently shows the features of “hot on both ends,” and whether the property market can truly stabilize and warm up will still depend on whether sales performance at key follow-up milestones such as “May Day” and “National Day” can be sustained.

Sales of new homes priced above 30 million RMB are up 170% year over year

As a barometer of market sentiment, the high-end residential segment is especially eye-catching in this round of the “brief spring-like” upturn. According to data from CRIC, in the first quarter of 2026 (as of March 15), Guangzhou recorded 333 transactions of commercial residential units priced above 10 million RMB, and 114 transactions of high-end residential units priced above 20 million RMB, up 44% year over year. Among them, 73 units were in the total-price segment above 30 million RMB, up 170.4% from the same period last year, with the growth rate running ahead of Beijing and Shanghai.

Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department said that in the “brief spring-like”行情, the recovery of high-end residences comes first. Multiple benchmark high-end residential projects in the central areas have performed strongly. For example, Polayuexibay, Pengrui No. 1, Riviera Bay Peninsula, Poly Tianyao, and Zhujiang Tianyue have all recorded large transactions, significantly boosting the成交 atmosphere and confidence in the central-area market.

A reporter from Nanfang Metropolis Daily learned that in the first quarter of 2026, the Polayuexibay recorded a total subscription amount of 6 billion RMB. For this project, adding one building for sale resulted in a成交 of 2 billion RMB immediately. The highest transaction price per square meter reached 280,000 RMB/㎡, and the average transaction price rose about 17% compared with the first launch; Pengrui No. 1 sold 2 units in a single day, each with a gross floor area of about 750㎡, and the total price of each unit exceeded 200 million RMB; for the four luxury duplex units of Riviera Bay Peninsula No. 5, the total transaction amount reached 718.7 million RMB.

Driven by the auction heat for the Mashang land parcel in Zhujiang New Town, since March, the number of visits to Poly Tianyao, about 2 kilometers from the Mashang land parcel, has increased significantly. A person in charge of the project told the Nanfang Metropolis Daily reporter that in March, the weekly average was 243 groups, up 113% compared with February. For some customers, the transaction cycle was shortened to just two or three days. The customer composition also shows a diversification trend: besides local high-net-worth residents, it also attracts a large number of high-net-worth buyers from Shenzhen, Dongguan, and even Northeast China. “One client is a finance professional working in Zhujiang New Town. They were paying attention to our project because they were concerned about the issue of buying the Mashang land at a high price. After learning about the renovation plans around Yuan Village, they recognized the project’s scarcity and value for money and completed the deal within 3 days.”

Huang Tao, general manager of the projects department at Guangzhou Zhongyuan Real Estate, analyzed and said: “High-end residences are less affected by economic cycles among their customer base. In addition, many high-end projects have outstanding product strength. Therefore, the market recovery comes first.” Real estate market research expert Deng Haozhi told the Nanfang Metropolis Daily reporter: “This is related to the fact that wealth in emerging industries is highly concentrated in leading companies and a small number of people. As the development pace of various high-tech industries accelerates further, the number of these high-net-worth households will certainly keep increasing, and their demand for high-end residences will also grow.”

“Hot on both ends”: wealthy buyers sweeping in and just-need buyers getting on board—each taking what they need

While the high-end residential market is making vigorous progress, the just-need market is also very hot. Just-need projects in the 1 million to 2 million RMB total-price segment, supported by strong cost performance, have firmly remained the main force in transactions, forming the “hot on both ends” pattern together with the luxury penthouse market.

Data from Purui Guangfo shows that in the first quarter of this year (from January 1 to March 15), among Guangzhou’s new homes transacted, just-need homes in the 1 million to 2 million RMB total-price segment accounted for 3,080 units signed for sale, with a market share as high as 35%. This means that among every three people buying a home in Guangzhou, one chooses this price range.

Zengcheng District has become the main battleground for just-need transactions in Guangzhou. As the district with the largest new home transaction volume across the city, Zengcheng generally accounts for about one quarter to one fifth of the city’s total new home transactions each year. In the first quarter this year, 1,536 units of homes priced between 1 million and 2 million RMB were transacted, which is roughly half of the city’s total transactions. The average total price per unit in this total-price segment was 1.3239 million RMB per unit. Among them, Yongning Subdistrict and Xintang Town, which are closer to the urban area, have become the high value-for-money choice for just-need homebuyers thanks to their cost performance.

Even in Guangzhou’s central districts and nearby suburbs, there are still some limited choices within this price range. For example, in Baiyun District’s four northern towns, in the Zhishicheng area of Huangpu District, and in Shiqi Subdistrict in Panyu District, there are listings currently for sale that fit this budget.

Behind this phenomenon is a high concentration of purchasing power in the market. Deng Haozhi said: “The current market situation is similar to 10 years ago. Extremely just-need customers dominate. What they care about is ‘whether they can afford it,’ so compact products that strictly control the total price are the first choice. Because of this, these products also show signs of supply falling short of demand first, and they may be the first to see price increases.”

On the other end of the market, the mindset of owners of secondhand homes also reflects this split. Ms. Huang, a resident, told the Nanfang Metropolis Daily reporter that she originally planned to sell an “old, small, and worn” one-bedroom, one-living unit in Fangcun, Liwan District, Guangzhou. But during the home-viewing process, the buyer sharply pressured the price down, and the final transaction price ended up far from her target price. After weighing it, she decided to give up selling, and instead after a simple renovation, she would use the home for rental.

Huang Tao said: “At present, Guangzhou’s rent-to-sale ratio has been adjusted to 2%-3%. In some submarkets, secondhand prices have adjusted beyond market expectations. Combined with the control of new home supply, it is unlikely that there will be a major adjustment in home prices.” “After many rounds of price pressure, many secondhand owners would rather choose to rent than sell at a loss. And as a first-tier city, Guangzhou always has housing demand. It’s just that the timing for buying differs. Compared with last year—when prices already underwent a large adjustment—the magnitude of the current price adjustment is relatively mild,” he said.

Insiders say plainly: Guangzhou’s property market this year is likely to move in an “L shape”

Multiple industry insiders believe that the segmented pattern of the “brief spring-like” market will continue in the future. “At the moment, the overall market is still in the process of bottoming out,” Huang Tao said. He believed that as market segmentation becomes more obvious, for now only high-end residences or low-priced projects with very high value for money are moving relatively faster. “Guangzhou’s current average new home price is ‘40,000+’ RMB. There are products with an average price above 50,000 RMB/㎡ but that are not yet at the level of high-end residences. Because market competition is fierce, the sales and de-stocking pace is relatively slow.”

As companies have clearly accelerated their pace of releasing inventory in late March, both supply and demand sides of the market are working at the same time. Monitoring data from Purui Guangfo shows that over the past three weeks, the volume of pre-sale permits for commercial housing across the city has continued to rise. As of March 22, there were 18 projects with new launches across the city, with a total of 2,043 units of inventory to be released, representing a large increase of 251% month-on-month from January to February. This enthusiasm on the supply side injects momentum into the market’s sustained operation in April.

Regarding the outlook after the “brief spring-like” period, Deng Haozhi pointed out that the driving force behind this round did not start in March. Guangzhou’s secondhand home prices had already been relatively stable since November 2025. “The market has already reached the bottom—at least a ‘stage-level bottoming platform.’ But the probability of it following an ‘L shape’ is greater than a ‘V shape.’” He expects that the transaction volume will be maintained at a relatively high level, with home prices mainly staying steady, and some local areas may even see a small increase. “On the one hand, the overall housing purchase policy remains in a relatively loose tone. On the other hand, some investors are targeting rental yield returns and entering the market; and for some submarkets, the return rates have already reached 3% to 4%, far exceeding the yield from regular bank deposits. In addition, properties in the central city area have both self-occupancy and investment value, so they are most favored by the market,” he said.

Huang Tao also expects that the overall performance of the property market this year will not be worse than 2025, but a true full-scale recovery may have to wait until next year. “If the sales performance in the hot-selling windows of May, September, and October this year can meet market expectations, it will confirm the market’s steady recovery trend,” he said.

■By: He Lushi, reporter from Nanfang Metropolis Daily / Text & Photos