I've been closely monitoring the live cattle market lately, and several interesting factors are converging now. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump's reciprocal tariffs, the market reacted strongly. The price, which had been stuck around 350 points, surged because it basically became easier to export to the U.S.

According to analysts I follow, even if tariffs reach 15%, the outlook remains favorable. The issue is that Brazilian cattle become much more competitive abroad when these barriers fall. We are in a cattle cycle now, the period when the supply of females decreases and naturally the price per arroba rises. Combining this with the tariff reductions and us being the largest, best, and cheapest meat supplier, a clear upward trend in prices can be seen.

Of course, there is a counterpoint. The low exchange rate acts as a brake. The dollar against the real is a decisive factor even in price formation. But looking at the overall picture, the balance tips more toward the positive side.

In the monitored markets, 25 out of 33 registered increases for live cattle. In Araçatuba and Barretos, the market references, the arroba rose 3 reais, reaching 350 and 355 respectively. Since the beginning of February, the arroba has increased by 20 reais in São Paulo state. The heifer rose 18 reais in the same period.

Now, there’s a detail few are talking about: China. They announced safeguards for 2026 and have a quota of 1,100,000 tons without additional tariffs. Brazilian slaughterhouses realized that if they exceed this, their products will be heavily taxed. As a result, they accelerated shipments at the end of last year. Of the 2.741 million tons exported, China took 1.648 million, or 60% of the total. This means about 400,000 tons would fall into the surcharge category.

The export volume is impressive. Until the third week of February, the daily average was 14,823 tons of fresh meat, 56% higher than the same period last year. In just three weeks, Brazil exported 192,700 tons, already surpassing the total for the entire previous February. The price in dollars is around 5,613 per ton, which in reais is about 29,301 per ton.

The market has reasonable liquidity, with cattle ranchers expecting higher prices, and buyers struggling to complete slaughter schedules. All of this suggests there’s plenty of room for upward movement, at least as long as these external factors remain aligned.