He Huoren Traders (April 3rd) Morning Trading Strategy

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As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.74%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 1.60% and 2.31%, respectively. Total market turnover was 1.8580 trillion yuan, a contraction of 167.1 billion yuan from yesterday. The number of stocks that rose and fell was 1052 and 4378, respectively, and the median of individual stock percentage changes was a decline of 1.77%.

On March 30 and April 1, the 30-minute K-line charts of the Shanghai Composite Index both showed a sideways accumulation and consolidation pattern. By common convention, the next day would generally rise, but the results were both declines. The current market is extremely extreme: either more than 4000 stocks are rising, or 4000 stocks are falling. When it’s down, you take a hit like you’re losing a whole cow; when it’s up, you only get back a single chicken.

In terms of short-term prediction, it’s indeed a bit difficult. The main reason is that, under the disruption from news and headlines, the index keeps moving back and forth. This行情 is like an absurd play: the director (Trump) speaks, and global stock markets shake three times; once a missile launches, hedge funds rush into the oil tanker. One round of action is fierce like a tiger—gains and losses all depend on Trump. Your account is the audience of this play, or the price to pay? Because of 特’s remarks, the market opened low and kept sliding, following Trump’s words every day—disgusting beyond belief.

This is also why Brother Long has been emphasizing recently, “control your position size; positions shouldn’t be too heavy.” The index is pacing back and forth, but the difficulty of getting money back is somewhat high—chasing after a rise and cutting after a fall is especially harmful. In terms of timing, the Qingming holiday gives people 3 days off; Hong Kong stocks are closed for trading today; and trading desire is low, so capital has a defensive mindset.

Additionally, on April 6 is the final deadline by which Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran. Overall, the broader market is still in a rebound cycle, and in the short term it should be viewed as a period of consolidation. If the broader market tests the lows again or makes new lows, then pay attention to whether a bearish divergence resonance at the 60-minute level appears.

That deep pullback in March has already washed out many of the uncertain floating shares. If the market wants to begin a new round of upside momentum, it absolutely cannot be done overnight. What the main players need to do is to repeatedly consolidate and shake within this range, and slowly accumulate shares—absorbing all the chips from panic selling completely. Only after they’ve built up enough strength can they push higher without any burden.

Also, don’t forget: in April, the market has never lacked positive catalysts. Every year around this time, stocks with earnings that beat expectations and strong performance with high growth will receive the market’s focused attention. The major computing power conference—i.e., the key event for this quarter’s earnings disclosure—is also coming soon. As the core hot sector of the current technology main theme, the computing power sector is expected to be driven by both policy and event catalysts, bringing the market new hotspots and vitality. With these two catalysts, a real decline would be an all-the-way drifting down: no sharp rebound, no clear absorption by the main force, and let alone range-bound consolidation or raising the lows.

Brother Long has a very clear approach for everyone:
Don’t let short-term fluctuations affect your judgment. Continue digging deep around the computing power main theme. The April market fundamentally doesn’t lack opportunities. The short-term consolidation is just the darkness before dawn. This year, it’s just been interrupted by sudden turmoil.

Commercial aerospace: the sector has already adjusted for 2 days. There is still money maintaining support for companies like 神剑股份, and I have a smaller brother holding 通达股份 as well. There are also plenty of April catalytic events. The sector is still mainly dependent on the index; observe the index situation, and there should still be opportunities.

Finally, let me talk a bit off-topic. Today is Friday. After today, there will be a 3-day holiday. While Qingming season brings rainy weather for people to return home and pay respects to ancestors, you can also go up the mountains to dig for spring bamboo shoots and taste seasonal vegetables. Borrowing one day of leisure from the mountains and wilds is also a rare kind of ease and comfort in life. The stock market is difficult, but we still have a wonderful life. Making the most of every minute and every second of today is the most successful investment.

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