Pig prices continue to decline, and the central government’s pork reserve storage is about to be launched.

According to a notice released by the Ministry of Commerce’s website on Thursday, to maintain steady operation in the pork market and better leverage the role of central government reserves in market stabilization, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance are currently carrying out the central reserve of frozen pork procurement and storage operations. Next, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to closely monitor pork market price trends, strengthen trend analysis and judgment, and, together with relevant departments,做好 reserve-based market regulation to ensure steady operation of the market.

Behind the joint initiation by multiple departments of the procurement and storage actions is the sustained “slide, slide” in pork prices over the recent period.

Data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that in the 4th week of March, the national average price of live pigs had fallen to 10.68 yuan per kilogram. It fell 3.3% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level in nearly 8 years.

For a long time, the hog-to-corn ratio (the ratio of the ex-farm price of live hogs to the wholesale price of corn) has been the industry’s “barometer” of profit and loss. According to data from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the 3rd week of March, the national hog-to-corn ratio had dropped to 4.40:1, the lowest since 2019 and far below the primary early-warning line of 5:1.

The core conflict behind pork prices continuing to fall is a supply-demand mismatch caused by excess production capacity.

At the end of 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows stood at 39.61 million head, and fell to 39.58 million head in January 2026. Although this year’s figure shows a decline, it is still above the 39 million head upper limit for normal stockholding set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

From the demand side, the consumption share of pork has been gradually decreasing. The proportion of pork in meat consumption has fallen from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025.

Recently, relevant departments under the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium with pig breeding enterprises to analyze and judge the price situation and arrange efforts to do a good job in market regulation. The meeting required that each pig breeding enterprise must strictly implement capacity regulation measures, scientifically arrange production and business operations, orderly reduce the inventory of breeding sows, reasonably control the volume of hogs sent to market, and help the supply and demand side better match. The NDRC and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will closely monitor the supply-demand and price situations in the hog market, carry out reserve-based regulation in a timely manner, and continue to strengthen comprehensive capacity regulation for hog production to promote steady operation of the hog market.

The Financial Regulatory Authority, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued the “Notice on Strengthening Coordination to Promote High-Quality Development of Hog Insurance,” further promoting stable production and supply for the hog industry, protecting the lawful interests of breeding households and farms, and helping propel the high-quality development of hog insurance.

Looking ahead to the subsequent trend in hog prices, Dongxing Securities, in a research report, said that the short-term trend of excess supply over demand in the hog breeding industry will likely persist. It expects that in the first half of 2026, hog prices will still face pressure, but as the effects of capacity reduction gradually become evident, supply pressure will ease somewhat in the second half of 2026.

In a research report, Hualian Futures noted that the industry is currently in a critical period of negotiation between short-term price pressure and the long-term clearance of excess capacity. Although policy guidance and the industry’s deep losses together promote capacity reduction, the pace of capacity reduction has remained relatively slow. The inventory of breeding sows and the base of piglet supply are still at a relatively high level, and the trend of continued growth in commercial hog supply is expected to continue through the first half of 2026, making it difficult for long-term supply pressure to be fundamentally alleviated.

Hualian Futures also mentioned that under the combined impact of a sluggish economic environment, shifts in traditional consumption habits, and the冲击 of substitutes such as poultry meat, China’s total domestic pork consumption has shown a steady downward trend. The market pattern of increased supply and weak demand in China’s live hog market is unlikely to change in the short term.

Zhu Danpeng, a food industry analyst at China, told Jiemian News that last year hog prices were generally low and remained so for a long time. On one hand, this is related to the increase in the national inventory of live pigs. It is also affected by the decline in digestion volumes on both the demand side and the catering side.

Zhu Danpeng said that entering 2026, the industry is expected to strengthen macro-level inventory regulation. Against this backdrop, the low-price cycle for pork is expected to gradually narrow in the second and third quarters. Entering the third quarter, the national hog prices may rise slightly, but the overall increase is expected to be limited.