Huatai Futures: Iran methanol facilities expected to gradually resume operation, with Chinese port inventories expected to decline

On the port side, Iran’s methanol plant restart is still low, but market expectations are that Iran’s plants will gradually resume operations. Iran’s methanol export-loading volumes have seen a small rebound from the bottom. However, in the short term, the expected shipments to arrive in China are expected to further decline from late March to April, and ports will continue a cycle of destocking. This week, port inventories began to fall from high levels, and the expected inflection point in port inventories—driven by lower import arrivals—has started to materialize. In terms of demand, downstream MTO units from Xingxing and Shenghong are still under maintenance, which is weighing on port demand. In addition, the arbitrage window for moving methanol from inland to ports is nearing a reopening; going forward, watch the progress of replenishment logistics for inland arbitrage. An inflection point in inland factory inventories has also appeared, with inland inventories topping out and then falling. Coal-head methanol plant operations have only slipped slightly from high levels, and the scale of spring inspections remains limited. Traditional downstream turnarounds continue to follow a seasonal uptrend: formaldehyde plant restarts have resumed seasonally, MTBE plant operations continue to surge higher, and acetic acid plant operations are fluctuating at relatively low levels. (Haitong Futures)