[US Stock Market Close] Concerns over escalating conflict push NY oil up 11%, surpassing $111 and overtaking Brent oil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average narrows its decline to 61 points.

The U.S. president Trump said he will escalate the war, while the market is watching the continued closure of the Hormuz Strait and the impact on oil supply, pushing up oil prices. New York crude oil’s May futures jumped by more than 10%, rising above $111, the first time in recent years it has surpassed Brent.

Just watch the U.S. stock market close:

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U.S. stocks had mixed performance on Thursday. The Dow’s decline narrowed, and by the close it had recouped more than 600 points of losses, while the S&P and Nasdaq repeatedly stabilized. The Dow closed at 46,504 points, down 61 points; the S&P rose 0.11%; the Nasdaq rose 0.18%.

Market news said Iran is drafting a transit agreement for the Hormuz Strait with Oman, and the market is watching whether (and the level of) the fees for the Hormuz Strait transit are charged. U.S. President Trump said he will take a “very harsh” stance against Iran, and hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East in the near term fell through.

New York crude oil surged as much as 13.83%, topping out at $113.97, and closed at $111.54, still up 11.4%. Brent crude futures rose 7.78%, closing at $109.03.

On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the third phase of the 90th round of military operations under “True Promise-4” had begun, carrying out attacks on AWS (Amazon’s cloud data center) located in Bahrain.

Amazon’s stock price once fell 2.7%, and closed down 0.4%. Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries were about 358,000 electric vehicles, below expectations, and its stock price fell 5.4%.

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The Kremlin said that Russian President Putin discussed the Middle East crisis with the Saudi Crown Prince. Both sides said the Middle East situation has a negative impact on global energy security and emphasized the importance of Russia and Saudi Arabia working together within the “OPEC+” framework to stabilize the global oil market.

Gold fell 2.4%, with New York gold futures at $4,695.

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As concerns about the conflict continue to build, the U.S. dollar index jumped 0.4%, temporarily at 100.02. U.S. long-term bond yields turned down, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was temporarily at 4.311%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its annual assessment report on the United States, saying the Fed would cut rates only once by year-end. Under the premise of rolling out a larger-scale monetary easing policy, the requirements are that the labor market outlook deteriorates significantly and that inflation pressures do not increase.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that lowering reserve requirements is one of the ways to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The central bank can reduce banks’ demand for reserves through regulatory changes, thereby shrinking the balance sheet.

Rodrigo Catril, a foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, said Trump’s “upgrade first, downgrade later” strategy is not without risks. Because the market seems to be focused on the fact that the war is not yet over, the U.S. is seeking escalation and hoping to force Iran to reach an agreement.

Pictet Asset Management in Switzerland said that the Middle East conflict and energy crisis have cast a shadow over the outlook for global equity markets. Therefore, in most markets, the firm has moved its equity allocation back to its benchmark level. Chinese stocks are an exception: supported by strong commodity inventories, sufficient alternative energy supply, and policy support, the firm still holds a positive view. Emerging market stocks have been cut to neutral.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

Intraday performance:

【18:10】Trump’s remarks increased market worries; Dow futures fell 483 points; Nasdaq futures fell 1.7%; Brent oil rose 7%; gold prices fell 3%

【14:00】Dow futures fell 555 points to 46,251 points; S&P futures fell 91 points to 6,526 points; Nasdaq futures fell 413 points, or 1.7%, to 23,781 points.

【14:00】Oil prices snapped up. New York crude oil futures rose 5.1% to $105.24; Brent oil futures rose 6% to $107.23; gold prices fell more than 3%. New York gold futures were at $4,659, and spot gold was at $4,605.

【11:53】【Artemis II】Back to the Moon after half a century—NASA’s Artemis 2 crewed rocket launches

【11:30】【Gold price trend】After Trump’s remarks, spot gold prices turned down by 1%. “Basically describing the conflict as a military victory, not a ceasefire statement.”

【11:11】【U.S. stocks analysis】After Trump’s remarks, Dow futures fell 400 points. Analysis: Near-term ceasefire hopes may cool, and there is insufficient momentum for a mid-term rebound in U.S. stocks.

【10:28】【Japanese yen trend】The yen traded at 4.91 against the HK dollar. UBS warned: If oil supplies continue to be disrupted, oil prices will rise; the yen against the U.S. dollar could weaken to 175 by year-end.

【09:56】【Iran crisis】Trump’s remarks: Achieved an overwhelming victory; the war is about to end. Vowed to hit them “very harshly” and send them back to the Stone Age.

【08:06】【AI】“Not going to be fragrant?” OpenAI—no one is taking over in the secondary market for hundreds of millions of dollars of OpenAI shares; $2 billion cash is waiting to be deployed toward rival Anthropic

【06:57】【New stock IPO】SpaceX secretly filed an IPO application, valuing it at $1.75 trillion

【06:34】【Iran crisis】Before Trump’s speech: Iran’s president published an open letter questioning whether the war benefits Americans (continuously updated)

U.S. stock market conditions for April 1, below $1 ===

Wednesday: Trump said Iran requested a ceasefire. Iran called it false news. The Dow rose 224 points. Oil futures fell.

In a post on the social platform Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Iran’s new regime president is less radical than his predecessors and is much smarter. He has just made a ceasefire request to the United States! We will consider this proposal, but the prerequisite is that the Hormuz Strait must remain open, free, and passable. Until then, we will continue to bomb Iran to destruction—or, as people say, bomb them back to the Stone Age!!!” An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said the statement about “Iran’s new regime president requesting a ceasefire” is purely fabricated false news.

Just watch the U.S. stock market close:

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The Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian issued an open letter to the American people on Wednesday, saying the Iranian people have no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring nations. He said the United States has assembled many military bases and military forces around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. The response Iran has taken and will continue to take is based on lawful right of self-defense and restraint. It is absolutely not about starting a war or committing aggression.

Iranian state broadcaster IRIB cited a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy saying that the Hormuz Strait will not be opened to enemies due to “the absurd actions of the U.S. president.”

With hopes that the Middle East war could end, the Dow’s gain once expanded to 461 points. By the close, it rose 224 points to 46,565 points; the S&P jumped 0.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.16%.

Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to private equity firm Apollo and repurchase half of its interest in the Irish chip plant. The stock rose 8.8%. Micron rose 8.9%,

New York crude oil initially dropped 4.8% to a low of $96.5, closing at $100.12, still down 1.24%. Brent crude fell 2.7% to close at $101.16. The market continued to watch the contents of Trump’s speech on the Iran war delivered on Wednesday night U.S. time.

Spot gold prices rose for a fourth straight day, up as much as 2.69%, to $4,792.96.

U.S. employment data for March, popularly known as small non-farm, ADP showed an increase of 62,000 jobs, above expectations of 40,000. Looking only at education, health care, and construction industries, they increased by 58,000 and 30,000 respectively. Trade, transportation, and manufacturing industries fell by 58,000 and 11,000 respectively.

When accepting an external media interview, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said: “We’ve already seen two consecutive months of quite solid job growth, but most of it is coming from the health care sector. That is the real focus. Health care is changing the labor market.”

In other sectors, information services added 16,000 positions. Natural resources and mining contributed 11,000. Leisure and hospitality added 7,000 jobs.

Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominated hiring, adding 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, mid-sized firms lost 20,000 positions. Large companies with more than 500 employees decreased by 4,000.

This was the second consecutive month that small businesses led growth. Richardson said this kind of shift may be because the industry is “catching up quickly,” while also being affected by inflation, and “the second or third job people need to deal with current price levels may be coming from the small business sector.”

Wage growth for employees who stayed in their original jobs held steady at 4.5%, while wages for employees who switched jobs grew by 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.

Trump will deliver a speech at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. Thursday Hong Kong time), giving an update on the latest developments in the Iran war.

Even though the fighting has brought hopes for a turning point, the head of the International Energy Agency said that due to the Middle East crisis, so far more than 12 million barrels of oil supply have been lost per day. The crisis is more severe than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined and the 2022 Russia natural gas supply disruption combined. It is expected that oil losses in April will be double those in March. At present, the biggest problem is shortages of aviation fuel and diesel, which are already affecting Asia and will affect Europe from April to May.

The International Energy Agency said it is considering releasing additional strategic reserves. “If we think there is demand for crude or refined products, we may intervene.” In the Middle East region, about 40 key energy assets have been damaged.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

Intraday performance:

【21:30】Dow opens higher by 338 points to 46,680. Nasdaq up 0.8% to 21,769. S&P up 42 points to 6,572.

【18:48】Dow futures up 291 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.9%; S&P futures up 43 points.

【14:30】Dow futures up 210 points to 46,792; S&P futures up 35 points to 6,606; Nasdaq futures up 194 points, or 0.8%, to 24,109.

【14:30】Oil prices eased. New York crude oil futures fell 0.8% to $100.59; Brent futures fell 1.8% to $102.28. Gold extended its gains. New York gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,721; spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,703.

【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold briefly reclaimed the $4,700 level. Analysis: Elevated bond yields limit the upside room for gold’s rebound; is the January high a “once-in-a-lifetime” historical high?

【13:17】【U.S. stocks analysis】Hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire; the Dow surged more than 1,000 points. Analysis: As long as both oil price and bond yield indicators keep moving downward, the market is reflecting a belief in the ceasefire over the longer term.

【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic’s human error leaked internal source code of coding assistant Claude Code—512,000 lines of code went viral

【10:23】【AI + layoffs】Oracle shares rose nearly 6%; reports say it has started a round of global layoffs, expected to affect thousands of people

【10:05】【Gold price trend】Gold prices continued higher; spot gold once rose above the $4,700 level. Betting that the Iran war could end

【09:00】【New stock IPO】SpaceX reportedly is working with at least 21 banks to prepare for an IPO, code-named “Project Apex”

【08:32】【NKE earnings】Nike shares fell 9% after hours; expected China market sales to decline 20%

【08:11】【Buffett】Buffett warned that the banking system is showing signs of fragility. Market panic could drive investors out; “getting out early to the door is still beneficial.”

【07:34】【AI + investing】OpenAI adds $12 billion to this round of funding; post-investment valuation rises to $852 billion

【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: The goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons has been achieved. No need to reach an agreement to withdraw troops; they can leave in two or three weeks (continuously updated)

U.S. stock market conditions for March 31, below $1 ===

Tuesday: Iran’s president said he was willing to end the war as long as it ensures they won’t be attacked again. The Dow skyrocketed 1,125 points, Nasdaq rose 3.8%, and oil prices fell.

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war if it can be ensured that it will not be attacked again. U.S. President Trump reportedly also signaled an interest in a ceasefire, intending to end military action against Iran as long as the Hormuz Strait has not reopened. The market hoped for both sides to deploy ceasefire measures, and U.S. stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday. The Dow’s gain once expanded to 1,167 points. Meanwhile, oil prices fell.

The Dow closed up 1,125 points to 46,341 points; the S&P rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.83%.

Just watch the U.S. stock market close:

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In focus stocks, big technology stocks continued to rebound. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%; Tesla rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) surged 6.7% at the close, and announced an investment of $2 billion in chipmaker Marvell, driving Marvell up 12.8%.

A statement released by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would designate as strike targets companies and institutions related to the Middle East region involving 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence companies.

U.S. President Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social, saying: “To every country that can’t get aviation fuel because of the Hormuz Strait—for example, the UK, which refuses to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation’—I have a suggestion for you: First, buy from the United States; we have plenty of oil. Second, muster up your courage and go to the Hormuz Strait to take it. You must start learning self-reliance. The United States will no longer help you the way it used to, just as you didn’t help us.”

He pointed out that “Iran has basically been destroyed. The hardest part is over.” He told those “onlookers” to get their own oil.

Foreign media reported that Trump told aides that even if the Hormuz Strait is basically closed, he is still willing to end the U.S. military action against Iran, increasing hopes that the month-long conflict could end.

New York crude oil closed down 1.46% to $101.38. Spot gold price had risen as much as 3.9% to a high of $4,686.9.

The U.S. dollar index was slightly soft, temporarily at 99.88. Fed Chair Powell suggested that additional rate hikes may not be necessary in the near term, while U.S. long-term bond yields continued to decline steadily, and the yield on the 10-year bond was temporarily at 4.321%.

On Tuesday, Russian ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media that Iran’s top leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran and is not in Russia receiving treatment as some rumors claim.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

Intraday performance:

【20:55】Trump: Countries that don’t help the U.S. in the future will have to learn how to secure oil on their own. Dow futures up 509 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. Spot gold up 1%

【18:00】Dow futures up 407 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. Spot gold up 1%

【15:00】Dow futures up 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures up 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures up 132 points, or 0.6%, to 23,272.

【15:00】Oil prices held steady. New York crude oil futures up 0.1% to $102.97; Brent crude futures up 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices continued to rise. New York gold futures up 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold up 1.1% to $4,558.

【14:06】【U.S. stocks analysis】Powell hinted no rate hikes in the near term—U.S. stocks rise first then pull back. Analysis: The probability of rate hikes was overestimated; if hostilities cool in the near term, the S&P could return to 7,000 points

【12:08】【New stock IPO】Nasdaq rolls out a “Fast Track Inclusion” rule to pave the way for unicorns like SpaceX to be quickly admitted to the Nasdaq 100 index

【10:48】【Gold price trend】Gold prices continued to rise by more than 1%. Powell eased rate-hike expectations + Trump reportedly also willing to end the fighting even without reopening the Hormuz Strait.

【08:03】【U.S. rate policy】Powell said long-term inflation expectations remain under control, emphasizing that monetary policy is in a good position

U.S. stock market conditions for March 30, below $1 ===

Monday: The Iranian parliament approved a fee to charge in the Hormuz Strait. New York crude oil stayed above $100. The Nasdaq turned lower by 0.7%; the Dow rose 49 points, once up 459 points.

The Islamic parliament of Iran approved a bill on Monday to levy transit fees on ships passing through the Hormuz Strait. Oil tankers may be charged fees of up to $2 million.

U.S. President Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran have made substantial progress, but warned that if the Hormuz Strait is not reopened, the U.S. may attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. New York crude oil immediately moved above $100, while the Nasdaq turned lower.

Just watch the U.S. stock market close:

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U.S. stocks had mixed performance on Monday. After the Dow opened higher and its gains expanded to as much as 459 points, it briefly reversed and fell by 109 points. By the close, it was up 49 points to 45,216 points. The S&P fell back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.

New York crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88 and closed above the $100 level. Brent May crude finished up 0.18%, at $112.78.

Activist investor Bill Ackman said the two major mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have fallen further, boosting their stocks by 51% and 47% respectively. U.S. aluminum shares were up 8.2%.

In remarks made publicly on Monday (the 30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war largely depends on how the conflict affects Americans’ inflation expectations. He said people often ignore any form of supply shock. But the key is to closely monitor inflation expectations. The central bank faces risks on both its dual mandates, including maintaining price stability and achieving maximum employment. Currently, the Fed’s monetary policy is appropriate to remain on hold, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve its 2% inflation target.

He also mentioned that, as is well known, the implementation of monetary policy has long and unstable lags. Therefore, by the time the effects of tightening monetary policy show up, the oil price shock may already be over, and the remarks or even hint suggest that rate hikes may not necessarily be needed in the near term.

On Monday, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying that the U.S. is holding serious talks with a brand new, more rational Iranian regime to end military action in Iran. He said the talks have made major progress, but if for any reason an agreement cannot be reached as soon as possible, and if the Hormuz Strait cannot be opened immediately for commercial navigation, it will blow up and utterly destroy all Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Halk Island, including all desalination plants at sea.

He also stressed that the U.S. has intentionally not touched the above facilities. He said the action is to retaliate for Iran’s “terror rule” lasting 47 years by the previous regime, during which Iran massacred and killed many U.S. soldiers and others.

But later, the chairman of the executive committee of Iran’s National Development Fund pushed back, saying Iran’s power plants are dispersed and more numerous, reducing the likelihood of a full nationwide blackout. He said that if Iran’s power generation facilities are targeted, Iran will plunge the entire region into a blackout state, adding that Iran’s armed forces have the capability to do so.

Gazanfari also said that countries supporting U.S. and Israeli actions will eventually have to pay for it, which could be reflected in damage to their own homeland or compensation for losses to Iran in the future.

When U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent was interviewed by foreign media, he said the global oil market supply is sufficient, with an increasing number of vessels passing through the Hormuz Strait. As time goes on, the U.S. will regain control of the Hormuz Strait, and the Hormuz Strait will achieve freedom of navigation, whether through U.S. escort or multi-national escort.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that even though the situation between the U.S. and Israel and Iran remains tense, Trump still prefers to resolve the Iran issue through diplomatic means. In his interview, he pointed out that the U.S. and Iran are still communicating indirectly through intermediaries, showing that even though there is conflict, diplomatic channels are still open.

He also accused the Iranian leadership of using national resources to support regional armed groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shia militias, while also threatening neighboring countries. He welcomed the Iranian leadership changing its political ideas and said the U.S. will “seize” any opportunity that can persuade Iran to change its political direction.

There are signs that the Middle East situation is escalating. Oil prices continue to move higher. Brent May crude futures rose by more than 2% again, to $115.08 per barrel. June futures also rose to $107.71. New York crude oil broke above the $100 level, to $101.81 per barrel, up 2.2%. Gold’s decline was contained, with a temporary rise of 0.8% to $4,531.24 per ounce.

U.S. stocks bounced at the start of trading on Monday. The Dow rose 320 points to 45,487; the S&P rose 23 points to 6,392; the Nasdaq rose 31 points or 0.2% to 20,980. This week, the U.S. will release data including the March ADP employment change, the March ISM manufacturing index, the March unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls.

Trump claimed that Iran “agreed” to most of the 15 demands the U.S. submitted to Tehran to end the war, although it is currently unclear whether the two sides are truly holding talks.

Trump said: “They agreed to most of our points. How could they not?” He added that “we will also present some additional demands.” However, he refused to disclose what concessions the Iranian side specifically made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are continuously updated—see the next page for details

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Intraday performance:

【23:10】Powell said monetary policy has lag effects, hinting rate hikes may not be needed in the near term. Oil jumped 2%. Dow rose 320 points

【21:30】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait cannot be reopened, all Iran’s power plants and oil wells will be destroyed. Oil jumped 2%. Dow rose 396 points

【19:55】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait cannot be reopened, all Iran’s power plants and oil wells will be destroyed, with oil rising again by 2%. Dow futures up 244 points

【18:15】Dow futures up 153 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. Focus this week: Middle East war developments + non-farm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms that the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Navy has died; denies any direct negotiations (continuously updated)

【13:26】Dow futures up 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures up 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures up 22 points, or nearly 0.1%, to 23,351.

【13:26】New York crude oil up 1.3% to $100.98; Brent crude up 2.3% to $115.17. As for gold, it steadied; New York gold up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Lock in the 2% inflation target; it’s too early to talk about rate hikes now; warns about systemic risks in the U.S. financial system

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump said the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and take over Halk Island export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen trend】Jun Murai Three-mura? (Jun Murai) warns it will take “bold action”; the yen at 4.9 per 100 HK dollars

【09:30】【Oil price trend】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, but the pain will be only half of the peak during the 2007 crisis

【09:17】【Gold price trend】Gold prices recorded their first gain since the outbreak of the Middle East war last week, but this week gold prices are falling again

【08:33】【Iran crisis】Iran war escalates; oil prices rise. Japan and South Korea equities also experienced another “Black Monday”

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil rose another 2%. Pakistan: A meeting between the U.S. and Iran will be arranged in the coming days; Iran approves 20 ships to pass through the strait; Trump considers deploying ground forces (continuously updated)

【07:30】U.S. President Trump said he will extend the bombing of Iran’s power plants by another 10 days. It did not ease market fears; instead, worries that a prolonged conflict will affect oil supply have increased, intensifying the impact on the global economy. U.S. stocks were down last Friday: the Dow closed at 45,166, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

Just watch the U.S. stock market close:

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U.S. stock market performance last week—see：【U.S. stock market close】Iran says its nuclear facilities were attacked; war fears may expand; Dow plunges 793 points; oil prices rise again; U.S. dollar breaks above 100

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