Everbright Futures: The Energy Substitution Theme Returns, Will Lithium Carbonate Lead the Next Market Cycle?

The logic of energy substitution triggered by geopolitical tensions has strengthened, combined with the sensitive response of lithium in the stock market and the uncertainties in overseas resource supply forming a resonance. On Tuesday, the main contract for lithium carbonate rose over 6% during trading, leading the commodity market. In the overnight market, discussions began about signals for a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, with the U.S. stating that “both sides have reached a significant consensus.” Precious metals and non-ferrous metals surged quickly, but as Iran indicated that “neither direct nor indirect talks have occurred,” the market adjusted again. Since March, market sentiment has continuously suppressed the price of lithium carbonate. Recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long-term logic of energy substitution has strengthened, and the stock market’s reaction has been more pronounced. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced, and in the short term, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium to long term, the upward movement of the price center remains unchanged, so it is still worth considering to accumulate positions at lower prices. (Everbright Futures)