Interview with KPMG's Wu Xushu: Chinese Consumer Brands Going Global Is the Right Time, Three Tracks Show the Most Potential

Ask AI · What new opportunities and challenges do Chinese consumer brands face when going global?

Southern Finance, 21st Century Business Herald, Reporter Zheng Qingtian, Beijing

On March 22-23, the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting was held in Beijing, with the theme “China in the 15th Five-Year Plan: High-Quality Development and Co-Creating New Opportunities.” In the inaugural year of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” consumption—an important engine of economic growth—was assigned a new strategic mission and became one of the most discussed topics at the conference.

Wu Xuchu, Vice Chairman of KPMG China and Managing Partner of the Northern Region, told 21st Century Business Herald that the significance of boosting consumption has achieved a threefold leap: from a short-term tool for stabilizing growth to a strategic foundation for building a new development pattern; from demand-side driven upgrades to a core driver leading supply innovation and supporting high-quality development; and from an economic growth indicator to an essential vehicle for improving people’s well-being and stabilizing social expectations.

Wu Xuchu predicts that during the “15th Five-Year Plan,” service consumption will become the main source of growth. The three major sectors—culture and tourism, health and wellness, and domestic services—will lead in scale expansion due to rigid demand, clear policies, and highly replicable scenarios. Among them, culture and tourism have the strongest foundation, health and wellness driven by aging, and domestic services will continue to grow with social division of labor. He also mentioned that the event economy plays a more catalytic role, providing growth momentum for other sectors through integrated ecosystems.

Regarding the highly关注ed silver economy, Wu Xuchu pointed out that the “new elderly” groups born in the 60s and 70s are becoming key forces reshaping the consumer market landscape. They possess solid wealth accumulation and digital capabilities, with consumption concepts shifting from survival to quality, experience, and self-pleasure. The silver economy is upgrading from “survival” to “development, enjoyment, and lifelong learning,” which will generate new cross-generational consumption scenarios.

In his view, the timing for Chinese consumer brands to go abroad has matured. The three major directions—new energy vehicles, national潮美妆, and innovative tea drinks—have the greatest potential to establish cultural recognition in international markets and promote the “Chinese lifestyle” worldwide. He believes that global Generation Z’s interest in Eastern aesthetics, the maturity of full-chain digitalization, and regional trade agreements create huge opportunities for brands to expand internationally.

21st Century: 2026 marks the start of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” with the government work report explicitly setting a goal to significantly increase residents’ consumption rate. How has the strategic importance of boosting consumption during the “15th Five-Year Plan” evolved? From “an important engine of economic growth” to “a core support for building a strong domestic market,” how has the role of consumption in the plan changed? What are your forecasts for the growth prospects of China’s consumer market during this period?

Wu Xuchu: The strategic importance of boosting consumption during the “15th Five-Year Plan” signifies a threefold leap. First, in terms of overall pattern, consumption has shifted from a short-term tool for stabilizing growth to a strategic foundation for constructing a new development pattern, ensuring economic security, and strengthening the domestic cycle. This means consumption is no longer just a policy option to respond to economic fluctuations but a strategic pillar related to long-term national economic自主性. Second, in terms of driving mechanisms, consumption has upgraded from a demand-side driver to a core driver leading supply innovation, promoting a healthy supply-demand cycle, and supporting high-quality development. This shift requires consumption to play a role not only in quantity growth but also in quality leadership, pushing产业升级 and technological innovation. Third, from a民生 perspective, consumption has transitioned from an economic indicator to an important vehicle for enhancing民生福祉, achieving common prosperity, and stabilizing social expectations. This reflects a profound shift in development理念, requiring consumption growth to be synchronized with民生改善.

In role positioning, it has risen from a primary engine to a core支撑. Functionally, consumption shifts from short-term growth动力 to long-term制度性 and基础性支撑, necessitating a more稳定 and可持续的增长机制. Policy-wise, consumption moves from phased policies to top-level design for building a strong domestic market, becoming a key part of national strategy. Mechanism-wise, policies focus on creating a “能消费, 敢消费, 愿消费” long-term体系, requiring systematic制度安排. From an economic cycle perspective, consumption evolves from a末端环节 to a关键枢纽贯通生产, distribution, circulation, and consumption, serving as a vital link connecting供给与需求, domestic与国际市场.

Looking ahead, I am cautiously optimistic about the growth prospects of China’s consumer market during the “15th Five-Year Plan.” Service consumption will be the main增量, especially in culture and旅游, health and wellness,育幼, and医疗, which will upgrade towards品质化,专业化, and普惠化.商品消费 will rely on硬科技 to achieve structural突破, with新能源汽车 as a核心抓手 for产业弯道超车 and消费升级, continuing to maintain strong growth momentum. The rapid普及 of embodied智能技术 will deeply应用 in smart homes,康复辅助,托育照料,健康监测等场景,融合发展新趋势将成为未来消费升级的重要方向。

However, the most critical current factor constraining consumption uplift is income distribution. Unequal增长 of居民收入 and persistent分配差距 directly impact消费能力 and意愿, which are fundamental constraints that need to be addressed during the “15th Five-Year Plan.” Only through深化收入分配改革, increasing居民可支配收入在国民收入中的比重, can we truly释放消费潜力 and achieve the goal of“居民消费率明显提高.”

21st Century: This year, 250 billion yuan of超长期特别国债 will be allocated to support旧换新 of消费品. Based on feedback from企业客户 served by KPMG, how effective has this policy been in stimulating sectors like home appliances, furniture, and automobiles? After优化政策实施机制, what new challenges and opportunities do企业 face in leveraging policy红利?

Wu Xuchu: From my观察,新能源汽车是本轮以旧换新政策的主要受益者，尤其在中高端车型表现突出；家电行业则以绿色智能升级为主导，一级能效产品的市场渗透率已超过90%；家居行业因与房地产高度关联，受政策影响更为间接。

随着政策持续优化，也带来了新挑战：补贴方式更直接，但对企业数字化能力提出更高要求；回收体系升级增加运营成本；数据透明化监管促使企业重构营销模式；同时，政策向县域下沉对渠道能力构成考验。在智能经济背景下，数字化能力和AI应用正逐步成为企业核心竞争力，服务化转型迎来重要窗口期，产业链整合与品牌价值重估的机遇逐步显现。

整体来看，政策正在重塑行业格局，资源加速向头部企业集中，行业竞争由传统制造与销售转向数字化运营、服务生态构建及绿色循环经济体系，行业洗牌加快，成功转型的企业将在未来3到5年占据明显优势。

21st Century: The government work report proposes implementing服务消费提质惠民行动 and creating new消费场景. You have previously observed the trend of increasing share of服务消费. In your opinion, which tracks in culture and旅游, health and wellness, domestic services, and events are most likely to achieve规模化增长 first?

Wu Xuchu: Culture and旅游, health and wellness, and domestic services, due to rigid demand, clear policies, and highly replicable scenarios, will be the first to突破规模化瓶颈 under policy support. Events economy, through ecosystem融合, provides catalytic动力 for growth in other sectors.

Culture and旅游, as the current leading growth pole of服务消费, has the most成熟的规模化增长条件. Demand is旺盛,基础最好,典型案例如重庆依托旅游人口爆发式增长，城市消费排名前列。核心趋势正从传统观光游转向体验式、沉浸式、民俗在地化文旅，这种转型符合新消费需求，通过创新场景实现可持续规模化。2026年春运民航运输近9500万人次，创历史新高，同比增长4.7%，“小而美、小而特”新场景的出现进一步验证了这一趋势。政策层面，“中小学春秋假”和“职工带薪错峰休假”制度优化，为文旅消费提供时间保障，奠定了规模化扩张的基础。

康养消费由人口老龄化刚性需求驱动，确定性强、市场空间大，具备持续规模化基础。作为“养老+医疗”服务升级的重点领域，康养直接对应中国快速老龄化带来的长期需求，这种需求具有不可逆性和持续性。康养与文旅深度融合，开启银发经济增量空间，形成“康养+旅游”“康养+医疗”等复合场景。政策支持明确，2026年政府工作报告将康养列为重点清理不合理限制措施的领域之一，并设立专项资金，为康养消费的规模化发展提供制度保障。

家政消费在经济发展和社会分工细化背景下，家庭刚需持续扩大，标准化、专业化提速，规模化条件成熟。家政行业成为吸纳就业的重要渠道，强化了其社会功能。随着服务标准化和专业培训体系完善，家政正从零散向规模化、品牌化转型。虽然纳入“6+3”重点，但相较于文旅和康养，受区域差异和标准化程度影响，发展速度可能较慢，但趋势明确。

最后，赛事作为热点制造器和文旅催化剂，仍有较大发展空间。赛事与演出属性相似，受场地、资源、频次限制，但能有效带动周边文旅、餐饮、住宿等消费，提升区域热度与影响力。“村超”等群众体育IP的“赛事+文旅+消费”生态，以及政策支持的赛事经济、冰雪经济、户外运动，彰显赛事作为催化剂的作用。

21st Century: You have pointed out that consumers now关注 not only products but also体验、品牌价值观和可持续发展。在消费结构由商品主导向服务与商品并重转变的过程中，零售和消费品企业需要在哪些核心能力上进行重构？

Wu Xuchu: I believe there are four core能力 that require系统性重构. First, shifting from product功能思维 to用户情感与体验思维.企业必须超越传统商品主义，深入构建与消费者的情感连接和情绪价值，将体验、品牌价值观和可持续发展理念融入产品与服务设计，满足消费者对意义感、归属感和价值认同的精神需求。

Second, moving from reliance on单一爆品 to多样化需求适配.面对多元化需求，企业需建立精准细分市场洞察体系，识别不同场景和人群的差异化需求，构建灵活供给体系以应对变化。这要求企业对市场变化保持高度敏感并具备快速响应能力。

Third, 重构长期爆品打造能力.企业需在标准化效率与个性化创新之间找到平衡，建立既能保证规模效益又能快速响应市场的产品开发与运营体系，形成持续创新机制，确保在多样化需求中找到稳定、可持续的价值创造路径。

Finally, 强化“商品+服务”融合运营能力.企业应将服务深度融入商品全流程，创造场景化、体验化的消费旅程，同时提升数据洞察和柔性供给能力，通过数据驱动实现精准需求预测和灵活生产，支撑长期价值创造。

更深层次的转型在于价值创造逻辑的根本变革——从以产品为中心到以用户为中心的价值共创。在体验经济时代，消费者购买的不仅是商品，更是情感体验、价值观认同和可持续承诺。这要求企业在组织文化、人才结构、技术系统和运营流程上全面升级，从“卖产品”转向“经营用户关系”，建立持续对话、共同成长的长期关系能力。

21st Century: The government work report emphasizes developing the silver economy and enhancing elderly welfare. From a消费结构升级 perspective, how will the silver economy influence the growth pattern of the consumer market during the “15th Five-Year Plan”? What are the different消费特征 and偏好 of the main银发消费群体 (like “new elderly”) compared to traditional perceptions?

Wu Xuchu: The silver economy will become a key force reshaping China’s消费市场 during the “15th Five-Year Plan.” Its core impact lies in structural变革 due to intergenerational替代——the “new elderly” born in the 60s and 70s are entering middle and old age, having benefited from改革开放, with solid wealth and ample savings,彻底打破“年纪越大消费越低”的传统逻辑，成为提升居民消费率的关键增量。到2025年底，60岁以上人口将达3.2亿，其消费支出占比快速提升，成为仅次于Z世代的增量市场。医疗康养、适老改造、银发文旅研学等服务消费，以及智能穿戴、健康食品、老年时尚等商品消费都将迎来爆发式增长，为“十五五”消费增长目标提供重要支撑。

当前银发消费的主力群体——55-70岁、拥有稳定养老金和数字化能力的“新老人”——展现出与传统认知不同的消费特征。首先，他们的理念已从基础保障转向品质、体验和“悦己”消费，定制旅游、文化课程、社交俱乐部等体验型支出占比显著高于基本生活需求。其次，他们具有全球化视野和现代观念，科技适配度高，智能健康监测设备普及率快速提升，线上购物、短视频、移动支付的使用率接近中年群体，数字化消费能力被低估。第三，他们的决策更具价值导向，更关注品牌社会责任、产品安全和情感温度，愿意为高品质、有温度的解决方案支付溢价。

本质上，银发经济正从“生存型”向“发展、享受、终身学习”升级。这不仅催生跨代融合的消费新场景，也要求市场供给侧彻底打破对老年消费的刻板印象，从产品设计、服务体验到营销沟通进行全面重塑，挖掘这一庞大且稳定的消费市场潜力。

21st Century: You previously suggested that Chinese消费企业 should export品牌文化 and生活方式 globally. In the current global trade environment and消费趋势, what new opportunities and challenges does China’s消费品牌“文化出海” face? Which品类 or品牌 have the greatest潜力 to establish文化认同 internationally?

Wu Xuchu: The “文化出海” of Chinese消费品牌 will迎来巨大机遇 during the “15th Five-Year Plan.” Opportunities first stem from the rising interest of global Z世代 in东方审美,国潮文化, and非遗产品, creating cultural premium space that allows Chinese brands to shift from低价替代 to中高端市场 with价值观. Second, the成熟的全链路数字化（供应链、AI、社媒/DTC模式）大幅降低出海门槛，为输出“生活方式”提供技术支撑。Third, RCEP等区域贸易协定降低关税成本，供应链优势凸显，为文化产品出海提供便利。

Challenges also存在：例如，缺乏开放包容、互学互鉴的心态，部分场景仅进行符号化和模板化营销，导致信任不足；复杂的合规与贸易壁垒（如欧盟GDPR、各国技术标准和ESG要求）提高成本，使传统低价突围模式难以持续；本土化能力不足，许多品牌在产品、运营和组织体系上未能深度适配海外市场，渠道和数据自主权薄弱。

最具潜力建立文化认同的品类主要集中在三大方向：一是“科技+生活方式”融合品牌，如新能源汽车和智能家电等头部品牌，已在欧美市场建立高端认知，定义绿色出行和家庭智能场景；二是“东方美学+文化IP”驱动的高溢价品类，如国潮美妆和潮玩文创，凭借独特审美和设计吸引全球Z世代；三是传统品类的现代化转型品牌，如服饰和新茶饮，通过极致供应链和东方文化根脉，重塑全球认知。