Everbright Futures: Agricultural Products Daily Report March 24

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Protein Meal: (Hou Xueling, Professional Qualification Number: F3048706; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013637)

On Monday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher as the market weighed Middle East tensions. U.S. soybean meal declined, soybean oil rose. The market is watching how rising fuel and fertilizer prices will affect soybean and corn acreage allocation in the U.S. USDA confirmed on Monday that private exporters sold 161,120 tons of soybeans to Mexico. Export inspection data show that for the week ending March 19, U.S. soybean exports were 1,101,730 tons, within the market expectation range of 600,000 to 1,150,000 tons, revised from 980,000 tons the previous week. Of this, 664,967 tons were inspected for export to mainland China. Brazil’s soybean harvest rate is at 68%, up 7 percentage points from the previous week but still behind last year’s 80%. Domestically, protein meal prices are volatile. Spot prices have fallen back, with expanding losses in livestock farming and rising raw material costs dampening terminal procurement, leading to slow soybean meal inventory reduction. Currently, the soybean meal market moves in line with import costs. Short-term participation recommended.

Oils and Fats: (Hou Xueling, Professional Qualification Number: F3048706; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013637)

On Monday, BMD palm oil was closed for trading. U.S. soybean oil fluctuated higher, canola oil declined, and Middle East tensions remain uncertain, prompting fund repositioning. BDM palm oil resumed trading today. News from the U.S., Israel, and Iran continues to emerge, with the market assessing Middle East developments and future changes. Domestic oils and fats continue to fluctuate, supported by a broad rise in commodities, especially palm oil, which led gains. Despite sharp volatility in international crude oil, oils and fats prices retreated. Spot prices for oils and fats have fallen, with weak terminal demand. Ongoing focus on Middle East developments and commodity sentiment. Short-term trading strategy.

Live Hog Futures: (Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013544)

On Monday, live hog futures continued to decline, with the main contract 2605 closing down 2.35% at 9,980 yuan/ton. Spot prices, according to Zhuochuang, showed that yesterday’s average price for live hogs in China was 9.7 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. The baseline delivery area in Henan saw an average price of 9.92 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg; prices in Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Shandong also declined. Limited demand support, sluggish sales of chilled pork, and downstream price suppression sentiment are evident; farmers are forced to lower prices to sell, increasing the proportion of low-priced pigs. Live hog spot prices continue to fall, with many regions dropping below 10 yuan/kg. Supply-side pressure remains a key short-term factor affecting pig prices. Combined with market sentiment, futures prices continue to decline, with the main contract 2605 breaking below 10,000 yuan/ton. Before supply pressures ease, pig prices are likely to remain weak, with attention to feed costs and surrounding commodity prices influencing market movements.

Eggs: (Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013544)

On Monday, the main contract 2605 for eggs rebounded, closing up 1% at 3,443 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices, according to Zhuochuang, showed that yesterday’s nationwide egg price was 3.25 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin cracked eggs were 3.15 yuan/jin, and black mountain brown eggs were 3.1 yuan/jin, both stable; in sales areas, Puxi brown eggs were 3.45 yuan/jin, stable, and Guangzhou brown eggs were 3.5 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. In the short term, egg prices in most production areas are stable or slightly rising, with terminal markets purchasing on demand. Downstream procurement remains active. However, in a context of ample supply, egg futures are expected to fluctuate within a range. Approaching Qingming Festival, demand may provide some support to spot prices, along with increased feed costs supporting egg prices, slightly raising the lower end of the fluctuation range. Continued monitoring of supply data and surrounding commodity prices affecting egg prices.

Corn: (Wang Na, Professional Qualification Number: F0243534; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0001262)

On Monday, the main corn futures contract broke through the 2,400 yuan/ton threshold, rising steadily. The main contracts 2605 and 2607 increased positions and showed strong performance. The market was somewhat buoyed by the relatively strong trading on Friday night. Currently, spot market inventories are at relatively high costs, and traders are generally reluctant to sell at low prices. Over the weekend, corn prices in North China remained weak overall. As prices reached a seasonal high, traders accelerated sales, and processing plants increased arrivals, leading to slight price adjustments. In the sales areas, corn prices showed little change, with light trading activity. High delivery costs in sales regions support stable prices, but downstream companies are less willing to accept high prices, mainly maintaining just-needed stockpiling. Market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to increased policy regulation and a weakening short-term bullish outlook. Technically, after the release of bearish policies related to wheat supply increases, the main contract 2605 showed increased positions and upward movement, with short-term stops and cautious waiting for further price and position developments.