GF Futures: Limited Fire Impact, Sentiment Digestion, Nickel Maintains Range-Bound Fluctuations

Yesterday, Shanghai Nickel futures slightly declined, with traders switching to the 05 contract. On the news front, a fire at Indonesia’s IWIP hydrometallurgical project drew attention. Authorities confirmed no casualties and minimal property damage, and production is gradually returning to normal. Macroeconomically, last week’s US unemployment claims increased by 4,000 to 212,000 for the week ending February 21, in line with expectations. Industry-wise, nickel prices slightly retreated during the day, and spot refined nickel trading was generally moderate. Traders mostly switched their quotes to the Shanghai Nickel 2604 contract, and the premium/discount for various brands of spot refined nickel declined overall due to the month-end and contract roll adjustments. Indonesia’s nickel ore supply shortage expectations have eased, but after quota reductions, tight actual supply has driven up the premium, with Indonesia’s mainstream premium reaching $34-35 per wet ton. FOB prices for 1.3% grade nickel ore from the Philippines rose to $52 per wet ton. Regarding refined nickel, Jutai’s refinery has recently come into operation, with a capacity of 30,000 tons, expected to start market delivery next month. The high-nickel pig iron market is gradually recovering, with stable to firm prices, but steel mills have not yet made large-scale purchases. Stainless steel terminal demand remains insufficient to support price increases, as mills still hold some raw material inventories and remain cautious about raw material price hikes. Downstream ternary batteries are expected to boost exports, but nickel sulfate procurement remains limited. Domestic exports face obstacles, leading to continued accumulation of social inventories, with recent narrowing of domestic and international price spreads. Overall, macro conditions are stable, raw material support persists, but weak demand remains the main constraint. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with main contracts around 138,000-145,000. (GF Futures)