Date: March 25, 2026

Short-term Impact

1)
· Event: Market reports US-Iran approaching agreement (approximately 15 negotiation proposals), de-escalation signals being released.
· Impact: Geopolitical risk premium rapidly clears → crude oil plummets, stock market rebounds, capital flows back into risk assets.
· Focus: Whether the agreement text and ceasefire terms are formally announced.

2)
· Event: International oil prices plunge significantly intraday, WTI drops over 4%, gold surges simultaneously breaking through $4,500.
· Impact: Capital shows dividing trade of "risk-on + de-risking" → oil and gas stocks under pressure, gold and volatility assets strengthen.
· Focus: Whether oil price forms a trending decline or emotion-driven rebound.

3)
· Event: US reportedly proposes "war bill," demanding Gulf states pay $2.5 trillion in exchange for ceasefire.
· Impact: War costs monetized → fiscal pressure rises in Middle Eastern countries, sovereign risk and US dollar liquidity expectations shift.
· Focus: Whether Gulf states accept or counter the proposal.

4)
· Event: Iran reportedly charges vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz per passage (up to $2 million per transit).
· Impact: Energy transportation costs become explicit → oil price floor rises, shipping and insurance fees continue upward.
· Focus: Whether the fee becomes institutionalized and execution scope.

5)
· Event: Qatar Energy announces certain LNG contracts enter force majeure status (facilities attacked).
· Impact: Actual disruption in natural gas supply → upward pressure on gas prices in Europe and Asia intensifies.
· Focus: Scale of affected production capacity and recovery timeline.

6)
· Event: Japan announces launching largest-scale oil reserve release in history (approximately 80 million barrels).
· Impact: Demand-side hedges supply shock → oil price short-term volatility is suppressed.
· Focus: Whether more countries follow with reserve releases.

Long-term Impact

7)
· Event: Strait of Hormuz transits in March plummet approximately 95% from pre-war levels (only 144 passages).
· Impact: Global energy transportation system approaches malfunction → oil price center of gravity rises, supply chains restructure.
· Focus: Whether transit volume recovers to critical threshold (>50%).

8)
· Event: Approximately 98% of oil transported through the strait is currently Iranian crude, showing "unilateral passage."
· Impact: Energy trade pattern reshapes → non-Iranian supply constrained, pricing power concentrates.
· Focus: Whether other countries' crude resumes passage.

9)
· Event: Turkey mobilizes gold reserves and studies "gold-for-forex" to stabilize the lira.
· Impact: Emerging markets enter "resource-to-stabilize-exchange-rate" stage → long-term gold demand support strengthens.
· Focus: Whether this triggers more countries to follow suit (chain currency defense).

10)
· Event: Global energy transportation begins showing "circumnavigation normalization" (first batch of circumnavigating tankers dispatched to Asia).
· Impact: Transportation cycle extends + costs rise → global inflation center of gravity passively elevated.
· Focus: Whether circumnavigation ratio continues rising and shipping rate trend changes.