Bitcoin ‘cold case’ cracks open – 500 BTC from 2012 resurfaces, what now?

Bitcoin, with nearly 17 years of history, was once worth little, even below $1. The period of low value saw massive purchases, and some early buyers lost access to their Bitcoin holdings or were disregarded.

As such, an estimated 2.3 million Bitcoins, representing approximately 11% to 19% of the total supply, are lost, according to Bitbo data. These coins are inaccessible, especially when private keys, hard drives, and other storage media are forgotten or lost.

Despite the large amount of supply lost, some are eventually recovered, and some BTC presumed lost finally wake up. In fact, over 6.5k pre-2012 BTC have reappeared in the market, according to Checkonchain data.

The latest revived supply is from 2011-2012, associated with an Irish drug dealer, Cliffon Clinton.

Clifton Clinton’s lost key revived

On-chain monitors reported that a wallet linked to Dublin drug dealer Clifton Collins moved 500 BTC worth $35 million to Coinbase Prime.

Source: Lookonchain/X

The deposit is the first of his 12 dormant holdings to move since 2016. Collins purchased 6000 BTC cheaply in 2012, using drug money, but lost access when handwritten keys were lost during the 2017 arrest.

Ireland’s Criminal Assets Bureau seized the funds in 2019, but they remain inaccessible. Finally, with Europol’s help, Gardai used advanced tools to access it.

Despite the recent access, authorities are yet to access the full holdings, leaving 5,500 BTC still frozen. However, the latest recovery offers hope of potentially recovering $423 million in BTC that is still frozen.

Bitcoin’s exchange flows continue to dip

Despite Collin’s deposits into exchanges, Exchange Inflows have continued to decline. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, BTC Outflows from exchanges have largely dominated for the past month.

Source: CryptoQuant

As a result, Exchange Netflow has remained negative over this period, signaling significant demand with sellers displaced or demotivated.

Thus, investors have continued to accumulate BTC. In fact, Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Ratio has also declined consistently in the past month, falling to 0.133, validating the market accumulation phase.

Source: CryptoQuant

Despite the rising demand, the analyst posited that it remains inadequate to restart a trend. However, prevailing market conditions indicate a stabilizing market and a potential driver of improved Bitcoin [BTC] price action.

In fact, BTC has held strongly above its 20-day moving average around $70k, and hovered around $71k as of this writing. Moreover, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) held above 50, at 51, indicating buyer presence, although sellers also remain strongly engaged.

Source: TradingView

With the price stabilizing above EMA20, BTC tested EMA50 at $72,144 at press time. A successful retest will see a strengthened upward momentum, setting the ground for a breakout towards $77,973.

However, sellers’ threats remain relatively strong, especially looking at the RSI. If buyers slow down, selling pressure could push BTC below the $70k support level to $67k.

Final Summary

• Around 2.3 million BTC (11–19% of supply) are estimated to be lost due to inaccessible keys and storage failures.
• Some “lost” coins are resurfacing, with over 6,500 pre-2012 BTC recently reactivated.