Inflation Pressures Quietly Rising, U.S. Import Prices Post Largest Gain Since 2022

U.S. import costs recorded their largest monthly increase in nearly four years in February, sharply raising concerns about a second wave of U.S. inflation and further constraining the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that import prices rose 1.3% month-on-month in February, the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The main drivers were rising oil and natural gas prices. During the same period, export prices surged 1.5% month-on-month, the largest increase since May 2022, with a year-on-year rise of 3.5%, reaching the highest level since September 2025.

These figures were compiled before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, and the upward pressure on energy prices has not yet been reflected in the data. Market participants note that as geopolitical risks continue to escalate, expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve will be further pressured, and bets on rate cuts within 2026 have almost disappeared.

全面上涨的进口价格，石油和加拿大商品是主要推手

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor show that import prices increased for the third consecutive month in February, with a 1.3% year-on-year rise, reaching the highest level since February 2025. Structurally, the main contributors to the month-on-month increase in import prices were oil, mineral products, and non-manufactured goods, with non-manufactured goods from Canada showing particularly notable gains.

Excluding oil, import prices rose 1.2% month-on-month, also hitting a new high since January 2022, driven mainly by rising prices for capital goods and consumer goods excluding automobiles, indicating that price pressures are spreading from energy to a broader range of goods.

出口价格同步飙升，工业品与燃料领涨

Export prices also showed strong gains. In February, export prices increased 1.5% month-on-month, the largest since May 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, reaching the highest level since September 2025.

Looking at specific categories, industrial goods and fuels and lubricants are the main factors driving the rise in export prices. The simultaneous sharp increase in import and export prices indicates that price pressures are not solely imported but are emerging on both ends of the supply chain.

战争前夕数据加剧通胀担忧，降息预期遭进一步压缩

Market reactions to these data are particularly sensitive because the figures were collected before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Analysts believe that as geopolitical conflicts gradually impact energy and commodity supply chains, there is a risk of further upward pressure on future price data.

Currently, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 have largely faded. The renewed inflation expectations, combined with slowing economic growth, have brought stagflation risks back into investors’ view, potentially exerting pressure on interest rate paths and cross-asset pricing.

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