POPMART Stock Price Plunges Over 20% in a Single Day, Are Vanguard and Goldman Sachs Becoming "Bag Holders"?

How do institutions that buy more against the trend evaluate the long-term value of Pop Mart?

The impressive performance report did not boost Pop Mart’s stock price; instead, on the day of the earnings release, it experienced a sharp decline. Over the past seven months, the company’s stock has fallen nearly 50%. The reason is that market concerns about its IP incubation ability and over-reliance on core hits have continued to ferment, compounded by capacity expansion diluting scarcity and tightening regulations, ultimately erupting at the earnings announcement, triggering a sell-off. Many early shareholders and most institutions cashed out, while some public funds bought more against the trend. Who will be the final winner in this battle between bulls and bears has become a market focus.

On March 25, Pop Mart announced a remarkable earnings report with revenue and net profit increasing by 184.71% and 308.76%, respectively, yet it faced a heavy blow in the secondary market.

The stock price plunged sharply in the afternoon, dropping 22.51% in a single day, erasing over 60 billion HKD in market value. Since August last year, the stock has declined nearly 50%.

The main reason for this plunge is likely due to revenue falling short of expectations combined with cold reception to new IP incubations. Looking at a longer cycle, the market has long been worried about issues such as reduced product scarcity caused by expansion and weakened overseas business. A series of negative factors erupted after the earnings release, directly triggering massive market sell-offs.

Before the sharp decline, many institutional investors had already exited early, and company management along with early angel investors also cashed out. Meanwhile, some institutions chose to buy more against the trend. Whether these institutions are aiming to discover long-term value or simply passively take over has also become a market focus.

**Good performance, but stock price still fell

On March 25, Pop Mart’s stock price plummeted in the afternoon, closing at HKD 168.3 per share, down 22.51% for the day, with a total market value evaporating over 60 billion HKD compared to the previous day.

The sharp decline is closely related to the performance report released that day. The financial report shows that in 2025, Pop Mart achieved revenue of 37.12 billion yuan, up 184.71%, and net profit of 12.776 billion yuan, up 308.76%. Despite impressive growth, investor concerns remain unalleviated, primarily because revenue was below the market expectation of 38 billion yuan.

Additionally, the market has been expecting Pop Mart to develop a multi-point IP matrix. However, new IP incubations have consistently underperformed. Recently launched IPs like Supertutu and After School Merodi have received poor market responses, with Supertutu’s Tmall flagship store selling only about 800 units, with secondary prices nearly halved, far behind the popularity of LABUBU.

This issue is especially evident in the earnings report, where LABUBU’s revenue contribution in 2025 increased from 23.3% last year to 38.1%, sharply surpassing the second-place Molly. Looking at the phases, dependence on LABUBU was even greater in the second half of 2025 than in the first half, disappointing investors expecting new IPs to drive growth.

In fact, market bearish sentiment towards Pop Mart had already appeared in the second half of last year. At that time, demand for LABUBU surged, prompting the company to expand production from 10 million units per month in the first half to 50 million units by year-end. However, this decision was not well received by the market, instead raising concerns about oversupply and product scarcity.

In November-December last year, short-selling firms like Burns and Deutsche Bank issued bearish opinions on Pop Mart. Besides concerns about scarcity, these institutions were also pessimistic about its overseas prospects. The number of short positions held by the company continued to rise, reaching 112 million shares in January this year.

Tighter regulations further worsened market sentiment. On February 1, the “Guidelines for the Management of Blind Box Operations (Trial)” officially took effect, explicitly prohibiting operators from inducing consumption and requiring disclosure of draw probabilities. As a company whose core revenue depends on blind boxes, market worries that new rules will restrict its consumer base and impact revenue growth. This also caused the company’s short positions to further increase to 119 million shares in February.

Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the earnings release finally triggered a market sell-off, with short-selling transactions reaching 25.29 million shares and a total turnover of 4.63 billion yuan, a new high since listing. As a result, Pop Mart’s stock has fallen 47.8% since late August last year, with market value nearly halved.

Interestingly, a few days before the earnings report, some foreign institutions had already begun large-scale reductions. On March 23-24, HSBC and Citibank sold 442,900 and 332,100 shares respectively.

**Buying the dip and exiting the market

Amid continuous stock price declines and mounting sell-offs, institutional investors began a collective retreat starting from Q3 last year.

Wind data shows that Pop Mart’s domestic institutional holdings shrank from 17.585 billion yuan in Q2 2025 to 7.042 billion yuan at the end of 2025, a decline of nearly 60%.

Many public funds have been very resolute in selling. For example, FuGuo Fund reduced its holdings by nearly 27% in Q3 and by 72% in Q4 2025; Guangfa Fund sold 90% of its holdings in Q3, making it the most aggressive public fund seller that quarter.

Meanwhile, foreign capital also exited rapidly. Over the past six months, funds from HSBC’s seat alone sold 88.41 million shares, corresponding to a sell-off value of 39.349 billion HKD.

Besides institutional investors, original shareholders have also been active in reducing holdings. Honey Capital’s Tu Zheng, an angel investor in Pop Mart, sold a total of 32.91 million shares in five transactions between 2024 and 2025, cashing out about HKD 3.123 billion.

Founders Wang Ning and executives Si De and Wen De also reduced their holdings in 2024, collectively selling 23.925 million shares for HKD 1.865 billion.

Contrasting sharply with the massive exits, many institutions have chosen to buy against the trend. For example, Invesco Great Wall’s star fund manager Nong Bingli increased holdings significantly in December 2025, acquiring a total of 2.8842 million shares.

China Merchants Schroder’s emerging star fund manager Zhu Weizhen also added 550,000 shares at the end of 2025, making Pop Mart its top holding.

Overseas institutions have also joined the bottom-fishing camp, with Vanguard Navigator Fund and Goldman Sachs Asset Management buying in during Q4 2025. Vanguard’s holdings include 20.62 million shares, ranking among the top ten shareholders, with five of its funds adding over 10 million shares, mainly via the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF with 8.889 million shares. Goldman Sachs’ three funds increased holdings by a total of 1.0572 million shares, ranking fourth in year-end increases.

Henan’s New Richest Person Wang Ning********

As Pop Mart struggles to break through amid a sharp stock price decline, few overlook the key figure behind this billion-dollar empire—founder Wang Ning.

Wang Ning’s business enlightenment began in childhood, helping in his parents’ grocery store. His parents sold tapes, fishing gear, and records in a county town, and young Wang often helped out, laying the groundwork for his future entrepreneurial path.

After graduating from high school, Wang Ning started his first venture during summer break, opening a football training class in his hometown thanks to his good skills. Although it was not highly profitable, it ignited his entrepreneurial passion.

In 2005, he entered Zhengzhou University’s Sias International College to study advertising. During college, he tried two startups, gaining valuable experience. He made a music video CD of campus life, which unexpectedly became popular on campus, leading to a paid production service that sold 1,000 copies in half a year, covering half of new students.

He also opened a grid shop near campus, renting small shelves to young people and selling creative small goods. The business was booming, with monthly profits exceeding 10,000 yuan at its peak. But the model was easily copied; within two months, over a dozen similar shops opened around the school, intensifying competition and squeezing profits, forcing him to close the shop.

After graduating in 2009, Wang Ning worked at an education company and Sina, but the rigid corporate life couldn’t satisfy him, and he was eager to start again. In 2010, with 200,000 yuan from selling his shop, he opened the first Pop Mart store in Zhongguancun, Beijing. Initially, it sold trendy goods—toys, accessories, stationery—but the performance was mediocre, even close to failure.

In early 2012, ongoing poor management pushed the company into crisis. Managers and staff resigned en masse, and losses exceeded 20 million yuan. Over a dozen venture capital firms rejected his funding requests, doubting the prospects of the adult toy market. Just as Wang Ning was despairing, angel investor Mai Gang stepped in with 2 million yuan, saving the company.

The real turning point came in 2015. That year, Wang Ning noticed a surge in sales of Japanese Sonny Angel dolls in his stores and keenly sensed the potential of the adult collectible toy market. At that time, the common belief was that toys were only for children, and adults wouldn’t spend money on them. Wang Ning believed that adults also have emotional needs, use toys to relieve stress, and express feelings, making this a huge overlooked market.

He promptly cut down product categories, abandoned the grocery store model, and focused entirely on trendy toys, IP incubation, and operations. He flew to Hong Kong to sign designer Molly, and in 2019, he personally traveled to Belgium to persuade picture book designer Long Jiasheng to collaborate, launching the LABUBU blind box series.

At that time, the blind box model was still new in China. Wang Ning precisely captured young people’s collecting desire and curiosity, combining blind boxes with IP to create a “surprise” experience, which quickly exploded in popularity over a few years. In 2020, Pop Mart listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a market value surpassing HKD 100 billion. At just 23, Wang Ning became a billionaire at 33, representing Henan’s young wealthy class.

In June 2025, Wang Ning’s net worth reached USD 20.3 billion, making him the new richest person in Henan, surpassing Qin Yinglin.

Editor | Wang Peng