Oil prices plunge! Silver rebounds

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[Introduction] The US-Iran negotiations have fallen into a “Rashomon” situation, with tech stocks and chip stocks rising collectively

China Fund Reporter Zhao Gang, compiled

On March 23 (Monday) Eastern Time, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher as investors assessed the possibility of easing tensions in Iran. Oil prices plummeted over 10%, gold narrowed its decline, and silver rebounded.

US-Iran Negotiations Fall into a “Rashomon”

The Dow rose 631.00 points, up 1.38%, to 46,208.47; the Nasdaq gained 299.15 points, up 1.38%, to 21,946.76; the S&P 500 increased 74.52 points, up 1.15%, to 6,581.00.

Last week, due to ongoing conflicts with Iran, the Dow and Nasdaq both fell about 2%, and the S&P 500 declined 1.5%. The Dow recorded its first four consecutive declines since 2023.

According to Hong Kong Wend Communications, U.S. President Trump posted that the US and Iran had very good and productive talks over the past two days, and instructed to suspend all military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, provided ongoing meetings and discussions are successful.

Trump stated that the US is “very interested in reaching an agreement with Iran.” Discussions between the US and Iran are “very intense,” and he “hopes to achieve some substantive results.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry on the 23rd local time said there is “no dialogue” with the US. The US president’s remarks aim to lower energy prices and buy time for its military plans. An Iranian senior security official said that there are currently no negotiations with the US and no plans to negotiate.

The official also said Iran will continue to defend and respond broadly to US military actions. Other sources indicated that there is no direct communication between Iran and the US, nor through intermediaries. After learning that Iran would strike all power plants in West Asia, Trump has chosen to retreat.

Tech and Chip Stocks Rise Collectively

Major tech stocks rose across the board, with Tesla up over 3%, Amazon up more than 2%, Facebook nearly 2%, Nvidia and Apple up over 1%, Google up 0.4%, and Microsoft up 0.35%.

Apple announced it will hold its annual Worldwide Developers Conference from June 8-12, showcasing a series of important AI features. The conference will focus on major updates to Apple platforms, including AI advancements, new software, and developer tools.

Tesla announced a partnership with SpaceX and xAI to build the TeraFab chip project, aiming for an annual capacity of 1 terawatt of AI computing power, creating the world’s largest chip manufacturing plant. The TeraFab is a vertically integrated chip factory covering design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, equipped with necessary equipment for testing, modification, and production.

Elon Musk pointed out that building large-scale data centers on Earth is limited by power supply, and only in space can solar energy enable larger-scale computing. 20% of TeraFab’s chip capacity will be used for Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots, while 80% will be used to build massive computing clusters in space—“space will represent the majority of computing power.”

European Business Television and Video On Demand Services Association (ACT) and other broadcasters jointly wrote to EU antitrust chief Theresa Ribeiro, urging Google Android TV, Amazon Fire OS, Samsung Tizen OS, and virtual assistants like Alexa and Siri to be recognized as “gatekeepers” under the Digital Markets Act, to counteract tech giants controlling content distribution channels and restricting competition through operating systems and AI assistants.

Most chip stocks rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.34%, Broadcom up over 4%, ASML nearly 4%, ARM over 3%, TSMC over 2%, Micron down over 4%, and Qualcomm down over 1%.

Oil Prices Plummet

Trump delayed strikes on Iran’s energy facilities and said his team was discussing ending the conflict. Despite Iran’s denial, the market stirred.

Brent and WTI crude oil prices once fell over 14%, then recovered some losses. After Trump posted the news on Truth Social, causing market turbulence, Brent crude closed below $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks.

CIBC Private Wealth Group senior energy trader Rebecca Babin said that the news is highly uncertain, negotiations are expected to last several days, volatility will persist, but the tone of negotiations may begin to limit oil price upside.

WTI crude fell 10.3%, to $88.13 per barrel; Brent crude fell 11%, to $99.94 per barrel.

Gold Narrowed Losses, Silver Rebounded

After Trump delayed military strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, gold prices narrowed their previous sharp decline, and silver rebounded, recovering over 10% of its fall. Spot gold briefly turned positive but then declined again due to Iran’s denial of negotiations.

Citi analysts on Monday said that current gold trading behaves like risk assets, similar to periods of high risk aversion over the past two decades. Given the momentum accumulated over the past six months and retail buying, this kind of pro-cyclical, risk-on movement is particularly extreme.

As of 4:12 PM Eastern Time, spot gold fell 1.9%, to $4,405.76 per ounce; spot silver rose 1.7%, to $69.094 per ounce.