CITIC Futures: Weak Demand Expectations and Cost Support Drive Wide-Range Fluctuations in Alumina Prices

Recent macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. From a fundamental perspective, as the quotation cycle continues to switch, the current spot average price level has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high-cost capacity is facing losses, and supply contraction expectations are intensifying. However, in reality, supply contraction still remains somewhat insufficient. Recently, production disruptions have occurred at electrolytic aluminum plants in the Middle East, leading to a weakening demand outlook for alumina. Meanwhile, shipping costs have surged sharply, and short-term increases in ore prices and caustic soda prices have provided some support to prices. Overall, alumina prices are experiencing wide fluctuations with increased volatility. (CITIC Futures)