CITIC Futures: Weak Macroeconomic Sentiment, Tin Prices Oscillating

Tin supply issues have eased somewhat: Myanmar is accelerating the restart of high-grade tin mines in low-altitude areas, and it is expected that Myanmar’s ore output will gradually increase in the future; according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal Authority has set the 2026 tin production target at 65,860 tons, higher than the previous estimate of 60,000 tons, easing supply expectations; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains severe, with supply risks remaining high. Looking ahead, tin supply-side issues have somewhat eased compared to before, but the main producing regions still face vulnerabilities. On the demand side, rapid AI development continues to drive high growth in the semiconductor industry, but global new photovoltaic installations may not grow this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may slow down. However, traditional fields such as tin plating and tin chemicals remain relatively stable. Considering inventory rebuilding in the supply chain, tin ingot demand is expected to continue growing. Overall, supply risks still exist, and combined with resilient downstream demand, tin prices are expected to have support at the bottom. However, in the short term, prices are likely to remain volatile due to weak macro sentiment and expectations of supply recovery. (CITIC Futures)