The Iran War Just Triggered a Bigger Energy Shock Than the 1970s Oil Crisis. What It Means for Your Portfolio.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency didn’t mince words when he described the impact of the Iran war on the global energy market. Speaking to the Financial Times, Faith Birol called the conflict “the greatest global energy security threat in history.”

Birol observed that even if the war ended soon, restoring lost production is likely to take months. In other words, the event is likely to roil global markets for a long time, and the externalities are numerous.

Let’s take a look at some of the stock winners and losers from the war and its impact on the energy market.

Image source: Getty Images.

Biggest losers

• Asian stocks: Asian markets like Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on oil and gas coming out of the Persian Gulf, so they’re significantly impacted by rising prices and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks in both those countries have fallen sharply as well, and are likely to struggle as long as the crisis endures. The **iShares MSCI South Korea ETF **(EWY 6.71%) is down 17% since the war broke out.
• **Cyclical (non-commodity) stocks: **Cyclical stocks have also been hit hard by the war, as it’s raised the risk of inflation and a recession. Industrials, in particularly, have tumbled as many of those stocks are sensitive to higher fuel prices either for transportation or to operate heavy machinery. Additionally, a weaker economy could push their customers to spend less. Similarly, the financial sector fell back by a few points, and discretionary stocks have fallen nealry 10%.

Biggest winners

There are clearly more losers than winners from the war, but there are some winners.

• **Energy stocks: **This might be obvious, but energy stocks are clearly benefiting from the spike in oil and gas prices. It’s not just oil producers that are seeing gains. One of the best-performing stocks has been Cheniere Energy (LNG 0.28%), an exporter of liquid natural gas (LNG), which is up about 20% since the start of the war in part due to damage to LNG infrastructure in the region.
• **Commodity stocks: **Other commodity stocks have also performed well, benefiting from higher prices. Fertilizer prices, for example, have spiked, pushing stocks like **CF Industries **(CF 0.55%) higher.

What it means for your portfolio

It may seem tempting to shift your portfolio into energy and commodity stocks, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the war, and the dynamics that have pushed those stocks up could reverse. Over the last few weeks, stocks have been volatile in response to changing news out of Iran.

For investors, the best thing to do is to prepare for volatility and save up some cash to take advantage of any discounts in stocks on your watch list.