Coal: Import volumes are expected to increase after March

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(Analyst Zhao Li from Zhuochuang Information)

【Introduction】After March, with Indonesia ending Ramadan activities and the rainy season passing, coal mining production and transportation are expected to gradually return to normal. Additionally, Indonesia has relaxed quota restrictions, which will provide some support for coal exports. It is expected that China’s coal imports may increase after March.

Analysis of coal import situation in January-February: Total coal imports reached a new high for the same period in history, but monthly imports in February declined both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Regarding import volume, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in February 2026, China imported 30.94 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 15.34 million tons or 33.14% from the previous month; a decrease of 3.40 million tons or 9.91% year-on-year. From January to February, total coal and lignite imports were 77.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%.

The main reason for the increase in China’s coal imports in January-February is the adjustment of Indonesia’s coal export policies. Specifically: in November 2025, Indonesia announced a reduction in its 2026 coal production plan, increased the domestic DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) ratio, and raised coal export tariffs. After the announcement, market participants worried about a significant contraction in Indonesia’s coal exports in the future. As a result, importers and domestic coal-consuming enterprises increased their stockpiling, leading to a rise in China’s coal imports in January-February. However, looking at the monthly data, January saw a significant increase in coal imports, while February declined. This was mainly due to three factors: first, February coincided with the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, during which market participants took time off, market trading activities were interrupted, affecting coal imports; second, Indonesia further tightened restrictions on coal exports in February, with some mines reducing production quotas and suspending exports to prioritize fulfilling domestic DMO obligations; third, after the tightening of Indonesia’s export policies, Indonesian mines showed a clear willingness to hold prices, with Indonesian coal prices remaining relatively strong. The prices of Indonesian coal were inverted compared to domestic trade coal within the same calorific value, leading domestic coal users to reduce acceptance of high-priced Indonesian coal and shift procurement to domestic trade coal. In summary, coal imports in January-February reached a historic high for the same period, with monthly imports first increasing and then decreasing.

Domestic Coal Imports May Increase After March

After March, China’s coal imports are expected to show an upward trend, mainly influenced by three factors: First, on March 20, Indonesia’s Ramadan activities will end, after which coal mining activities will resume normal operations; second, the rainy season is nearing its end, and the ongoing heavy rains previously hindered coal mining and transportation in Indonesia. Once the rainy season ends, mining and transportation efficiency will improve; third, Indonesia announced that its 2026 coal production plan will be set at 733 million tons, far exceeding the previous plan of 600 million tons, and the domestic DMO ratio will not increase but decrease. The increased planned output and improved mining and transportation efficiency will support Indonesia’s coal production and exports. In summary, it is expected that China’s coal imports may increase after March.

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Editor: Li Tiemin