Within half a month, A-shares completed their third "V-shaped recovery," with this direction showing strength during each rebound.

Why does the AI and technology sector repeatedly lead the rebound in A-shares?

On March 16, the market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shenzhen Component Index closing in the green and the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. By the close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Composite rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index increased 1.41%.

From the sector perspective, the storage chip concept experienced a collective surge, deep-sea technology concepts strengthened, PCB concepts were active, and shipping stocks rose in the afternoon. On the downside, energy storage and green electricity concepts continued to adjust, and the coal sector declined.

Over 2,800 stocks in the market rose. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.33 trillion yuan, shrinking by 75 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.

Following March 4 and March 9, today (March 16) marks the third deep V reversal in A-shares this month.

Compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, we recommend using the Wind All A or the All A average stock price as a reference↓

It’s not hard to see that the 60-day moving average, often regarded as the “bull-bear dividing line,” has been repeatedly tested three times in the past half month and remains an effective support level so far.

How should we interpret this phenomenon?

We all know that during this half month, Middle East conflicts have been a persistent negative factor suppressing the market. No one can predict when or how it will end, nor how long the rebound will last — but the market is clearly adapting to it.

The first level of adaptation is to find the most logically fitting themes for the current situation.

Some analysts say that recently, the market has gradually clarified that the common carriers of “policy-driven support” and “geopolitical catalysts” are related to energy security and energy substitution. For example, new energy sectors like wind power, energy storage, nuclear power, as well as chemical industries like coal chemical and chemical sectors with “price increase logic.”

The second level of adaptation is psychological desensitization, finding a reasonable balance between “blind optimism” and “excessive panic.” When the mindset is properly adjusted, portfolio allocation will also become more rational.

According to a research report from AVIC Securities, looking ahead, the Middle East conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and oil prices may remain high. The contest for control of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the US may intensify, and A-shares are still in a phase of volatility and fluctuation. Structurally, it is recommended to focus on dividend and stable styles, as well as investment opportunities in the energy sector.

It’s worth noting that by reviewing the market-leading directions during the last three deep V reversals, some themes have been more proactive. Using the “Wind Hot Concept Index” as a gauge:

On March 4, the market led a rebound with “power grid equipment” and “storage chips”;

On March 9, photovoltaic equipment, computing hardware, and “small lobsters” performed well;

And today, the leading sectors again include semiconductors (including storage chips) and AI hardware, with white wine and shipping sectors also contributing.

Overall, as the market bottoms out and rebounds, specific themes in the tech sector tend to perform actively.

On the news front, after storage chips and packaging, the semiconductor industry chain may see a new wave of price increases. Mature process wafer foundries like UMC, World Advanced, and Powerchip are expected to raise prices starting as early as April, with increases of up to 10% or more.

Meanwhile, the “AI Gala” known as NVIDIA’s annual GTC (GPU Technology Conference) 2026 will kick off in San Jose, California (local time March 16-19), where NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech.

CITIC Securities notes that with GTC 2026 approaching, NVIDIA’s chip product matrix is expected to expand further. Besides the full set of six core chips for the Vera Rubin AI platform, more details about Rubin Ultra chips and server cabinets may be disclosed, bringing innovations in data connectivity and power supply architecture. The launch of new products like orthogonal backplanes and CPOs is also expected to gain visibility. NVIDIA may also unveil the LPU inference chip, expanding its inference ecosystem alongside the CXP chips. Additionally, NVIDIA might outline the next-generation Feynman architecture upgrade, sharing insights on future computing infrastructure and AI industry trends. The market is optimistic that GTC 2026 will further strengthen confidence in the sustained growth and incremental logic of the AI industry.

Guotai Haitong Securities believes that recent geopolitical conflicts have caused significant disruptions in the secondary market, with Asia-Pacific indices experiencing various degrees of correction, and core A-share indices also impacted. As the situation eases, the willingness of funds to return to technology stocks is beginning to show, and the market is gradually returning to its original investment themes.

They state that the market disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts are ultimately short-term factors. Comparing the current situation to the post-Ukraine conflict market in 2022, short-term adjustments may serve as a key opportunity for asset reallocation. After the correction, the market is likely to continue along its original main line. Based on the current environment, the 2026 secondary market investment can focus on three core directions:

Technology Mainline: Focus on core areas such as computing power, optical communications (including CPO), and AI computing hardware — these are the main directions for capital inflow and have long-term growth prospects.

Resource Commodities Mainline: Pay attention to energy storage, chemicals, power equipment, and copper, which are relatively certain sectors. Be cautious about short-term pulses in photovoltaics, wind power, and coal chemicals. Long-term prospects for rare earths remain positive, but short-term caution is advised.

Value Stocks Mainline: Rebuild investment logic by allocating low-volatility dividend stocks like CSI Dividend Index and other stable dividend stocks for relatively steady income. Traditional consumption stocks are more suitable for long-term holding, while short-term opportunities can be found in service consumption growth.

Investing involves risks; independent judgment is crucial.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Entering the market is at your own risk.

Cover image source: Market data screenshot

Reporter: Zhao Yun | Editor: Peng Shuiping

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