France announced a troop surge to the Middle East, and spot gold fell to $4,550, down 2.19% intraday; silver plummeted 6.00%; bitcoin briefly broke below $70,000. Geopolitical tensions escalated, yet safe-haven assets fell instead of rising—seemingly counterintuitive, but the logic is clear.

As mentioned earlier, the market is not pricing in "risk events," but rather the transmission chain of "oil prices → inflation → interest rates." The troop surge intensified expectations of a Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil prices remained elevated, inflation expectations warmed, directly postponing the Federal Reserve's rate-cut timeline, and real interest rate expectations rose—this directly suppresses non-yielding assets like gold, while silver experienced steeper losses due to its industrial attributes. Bitcoin briefly breaking below $70,000 further confirms that crypto assets cannot escape unscathed amid tightening liquidity expectations. The gains accumulated from successive ETF net inflows were partially reversed under macroeconomic pressure.

In the short term, as long as the combination of "elevated oil prices + no rate cuts in sight" remains unchanged, geopolitical conflicts themselves are no longer a reason for gold to rise. The real turning signal may come when energy risks ease and the market reprices the rate-cut trajectory. #美联储3月议息会议 $SIREN