Caixin Futures Peng Ningjun: Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupt Futures Markets, Supply Chain Security Reshaping Energy Sector Pricing Logic

People’s Financial News, March 21 — Recently, the futures market has been dominated by geopolitical conflicts, showing a pattern where energy commodities lead the gains, agricultural products follow suit, and non-ferrous metals experience mild corrections. Market pricing logic has shifted from traditional supply and demand fundamentals to a reassessment of supply chain security. Recently, Peng Ningjun, a chemical researcher at Caixin Futures R&D Service Center, told reporters in an exclusive interview that this round of market has gone through two stages: emotional anticipation and actual supply disruptions. The blockage of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz combined with domestic and international refining and chemical plant maintenance has caused systemic supply shocks in the energy sector, with several commodities reaching their highest prices in nearly three years. Currently, both bulls and bears are fiercely competing over filling supply gaps, negative feedback from demand, and the direction of geopolitical tensions. The market has entered a phase of high volatility and divergence. Moving forward, focus should be on commodities supported by supply and demand, while remaining cautious of chasing gains. Geopolitical factors have become as important as fundamentals in determining prices. (China Securities Journal)