Harvest Market Commentary March 16: Divergent Performance Between Markets, ChiNext Up More Than 1.4%

🌟【Market Commentary for March 16】The two markets show divergence, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1.4%

📝Daily Viewpoint

🎈Today, the three major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen show mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.4%. Trading volume across both markets continued to shrink compared to last Friday, totaling 2.34 trillion yuan. The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran remains a key factor affecting global capital markets. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz amplifies geopolitical risks disrupting the oil supply chain, increasing risks and premiums in crude oil and shipping, and driving a macro re-pricing chain of “supply-side shocks—rising inflation—passive tightening of financial conditions.” Currently, the potential duration of this conflict remains uncertain. For the domestic equity market, short-term risk appetite is suppressed, volatility has increased, and upstream energy and shipping chain pricing are strengthening. Downstream sectors dependent on crude oil costs, such as chemicals and transportation, face dual pressures on profit margins. Caution is advised in short-term market fluctuations, with a balanced allocation strategy and a focus on defensive dividend assets.

🔥News Highlights

🎈On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year in real terms. Month-on-month, February’s industrial added value grew by 0.83% compared to January. Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 86.079 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January-February reached 52.721 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year; in specific sectors, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%, manufacturing investment grew by 3.1%, while real estate development investment declined by 11.1%.

Brief comment: Overall, key economic indicators rebounded significantly in January-February, indicating a good start for the national economy. However, external environment changes are deepening, geopolitical risks are rising, and old and new challenges remain in economic development and transformation, with some enterprises facing operational difficulties. In the next phase, more proactive macro policies are expected to be implemented, tailored to local conditions to develop new productive forces, thereby promoting qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy.

🎈On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in February 2026, the month-on-month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow, with year-on-year declines also observed. The number of cities where new residential sales prices increased or remained flat month-on-month increased compared to last month. In first-tier cities, new residential sales prices remained flat month-on-month after a 0.3% decline last month, with a 2.2% year-on-year decrease, an expansion of 0.1 percentage points. Second-hand residential prices declined by 0.1% month-on-month, a narrower decline of 0.4 percentage points from last month, and fell 7.6% year-on-year, with the same rate of decline as last month.

Brief comment: February’s housing price data signals a marginal improvement in the real estate market, showing that under continuous policy support, market expectations are gradually shifting toward stabilization. The improvement in month-on-month price signals helps restore valuation pressures in the real estate chain (development, building materials, furniture, appliances), but the year-on-year decline is still widening, indicating that the foundation for industry recovery still needs strengthening. The “small spring” in core cities and subsequent policy pace for demand deserve attention.

🎈On March 13, the People’s Bank of China released the financial statistics report for February 2026. Data shows that at the end of February, the total social financing stock was 451.4 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year; broad money (M2) stood at 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9%; narrow money (M1) was 115.93 trillion yuan, up 5.9%. In the first two months, the cumulative increase in social financing was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan.

Brief comment: February’s financial data under the “moderately loose” monetary policy tone shows that total financial volume remains growing at a steady pace, supporting the real economy. M2 growth at 9% and social financing exceeding 450 trillion yuan reflect overall ample liquidity. Structurally, new medium- and long-term loans to enterprises performed well, indicating financial resources are tilting toward manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Household loans decreased mainly due to seasonal factors; with policies like interest subsidies on consumer loans, household borrowing is expected to rebound later.

👉Market Review

🎈On March 16, the three major A-share indices showed mixed gains and losses. By the close, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.26% at 4,084.79 points; the Shenzhen Component rose 0.19% to 14,307.58 points; the ChiNext Index increased 1.41% to 3,357.02 points; the STAR 50 (STAR Market) gained 1.31% to 1,566.81 points. Among primary industries, food & beverages, electronics, and retail trade led gains with increases of 1.99%, 1.77%, and 0.99%, respectively. Steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals saw declines of 3.16%, 2.67%, and 2.15%. A total of 2,771 stocks rose, while 2,338 declined.

💰Fund Flow Tracking

🎈Market trading volume was 23.401 trillion yuan, down from the previous trading day. The margin trading balance last Friday was 26.517 trillion yuan, also down from the previous day.

Data source: Tonghuashun, as of March 16, 2026. Funds carry risks; investment should be cautious. Fund managers commit to managing and using fund assets honestly, diligently, and responsibly, but do not guarantee profits or returns. Past performance does not predict future results.

MACD bullish crossover signals formed, these stocks are on a good upward trend!