Low-orbit satellite collision risk skyrockets 230%! Commercial space elite believe this is actually a new opportunity that could spawn insurance for satellites, robotic space "cleaning" services⋯⋯

Everyday Economic News Reporter | Yang Yu Everyday Economic News Editor | Wen Duo

On March 13, China’s satellite internet construction made new progress. The Long March 8A carrier rocket was launched at the Hainan commercial space launch site, then sent 20 low Earth orbit satellite internet satellites into their designated orbits.

The enthusiasm for the satellite internet industry is further increasing: this year, the government work report explicitly mentioned “accelerating the development of satellite internet,” and supply chain listed companies have already felt the industry’s acceleration. Meanwhile, with multiple global satellite internet plans densely networked, near-Earth orbit is becoming increasingly crowded.

Recently, several commercial space companies told the Daily Economic News that the significant increase in spacecraft and debris density in low Earth orbit has intensified the risk of space collisions, and challenges related to space safety and sustainability are increasingly emerging. Space governance is not only a technical issue but also a regulatory one.

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Satellite internet systems composed of tens of thousands of satellites have not only unprecedentedly expanded the scale and speed of human connectivity but also brought new, increasingly severe governance challenges.

Earlier this year, SpaceX’s Starlink project announced plans to lower the orbit of about 4,400 satellites within the year. The goal is to maintain space safety by keeping the Starlink satellite system away from the increasingly crowded 500-600 km orbit band and reducing potential debris risks.

Will the surge in low Earth orbit satellites increase the risk of orbital collisions?

Peng Haomin, co-founder and vice president of Dongfang Space, stated that with the rapid development of global commercial space activities, high-density launches such as low Earth constellation networks have indeed increased the risk of space collisions. It is estimated that the collision risk of low Earth satellites has surged by 230% over the past five years, with a collision probability of 10% in core orbit bands, and the number of objects in orbit has increased by over 70% during the same period.

In recent years, Starlink satellites have accelerated deployment, with over 9,000 satellites currently in orbit. However, they have also been involved in multiple collision risk incidents. In December last year, a Starlink satellite malfunctioned, rapidly descending 4,000 meters in orbit and generating debris. Such accidents pose serious threats to other spacecraft safety.

Zhang Peng, General Manager of Galaxy Aerospace Solutions, said that the global low Earth orbit satellite industry is entering a burst growth phase. The near-Earth orbit has shifted from the traditional perception of an “empty space” to a highly crowded and complex environment with high collision risks, spectrum resource tensions, and intensified international rule-making competition.

Industry experts also pay close attention to the governance issues brought by the rapid deployment of mega-constellations.

A person in charge of Tianbing Technology said that space environment is a global public resource, and its safety and stability directly relate to the reliability and high-quality development of commercial space projects. Only by maintaining the long-term sustainability of orbital environment can we provide reliable support for the “anytime, anywhere online” infrastructure.

Orbital governance depends on corporate awareness; many commercial space companies are shifting from passive responses to proactive planning. Besides Starlink’s active deorbiting, leading domestic companies are also leveraging their expertise to address governance challenges.

For example, in launch operations, Dongfang Space aims to reduce collision risks from the source by adopting end-of-mission rocket passivation technology, precise orbit insertion, and deorbit techniques. The company is also developing space robots capable of debris removal and satellite lifespan extension, further contributing to orbital safety and governance solutions.

Tianbing Technology also emphasizes source design, such as improving orbit insertion accuracy and separation reliability to reduce potential debris caused by deviations or failures. Additionally, in rocket stages and satellite design, reserve deorbit propulsion margins are included to ensure controlled deorbit after mission completion, preventing long-term space debris.

“We will continue to optimize rocket and satellite co-design, adhere to high reliability, low cost, and large-scale launch principles, and build a solid bottom line for orbital safety from the source. We also aim to strengthen data sharing and collaboration with industry partners to jointly maintain the long-term sustainable use of space,” said a Tianbing Technology representative.

Galaxy Aerospace believes that spectrum resources are one of the core elements of space governance. As low Earth constellation deployments scale up, electromagnetic interference among satellite systems and between satellites and ground systems has become increasingly prominent, making efficient spectrum utilization a key bottleneck restricting industry development.

According to Zhang Peng, Galaxy Aerospace has conducted extensive interference simulation studies of low Earth internet satellite systems and other systems, proposing multiple effective and feasible interference avoidance measures. Based on this, Galaxy Aerospace is also researching spectrum sensing-based sharing technologies to improve spectrum resource utilization.

Zhang Peng believes that in the future, in the field of orbital safety, commercial space enterprises can leverage their advantages to support the construction of China’s autonomous space-based space situational awareness system. By applying technological innovations such as software-defined satellites, onboard intelligent processing, and AI data analysis, they can inject technological strength into space governance.

More profound than technology is the issue of rules.

Space governance has clear attributes as a global public good with strong public welfare characteristics. How to establish a fair, sustainable, and effectively enforceable space environment governance cost-sharing and responsibility allocation mechanism?

A person in charge of Tianbing Technology said that the principles of “who benefits, who is responsible” and “common but differentiated responsibilities” should be upheld to build a fair, transparent, and sustainable cost-sharing and responsibility system.

Peng Haomin believes that building such a mechanism requires the joint participation of governments, institutions, and industries, clarifying governance goals, principles, and basic rules, with international consensus as the foundation for cost-sharing and responsibility allocation. He also suggests actively promoting the establishment of real-time shared orbital data, collision warning information, space debris monitoring, and other information-sharing platforms to enhance space situational awareness and provide precise data support for responsibility attribution.

Furthermore, Peng Haomin advocates for a three-tier sharing model of “historical responsibility + current participation + future commitments,” determining space environment governance costs based on the benefits received by enterprises or countries in space activities, and establishing a responsibility traceability system of “who pollutes, who governs, who compensates,” to motivate all parties to participate actively in compliant governance.

In participating in international rule-making, China’s commercial space companies are becoming more active. Zhang Peng revealed that Galaxy Aerospace has actively engaged in the International Telecommunication Union’s (ITU-R) working group (SG4) related to low Earth constellation issues.

“Dongfang Space believes space governance has never been a burden,” said Peng Haomin. “Instead, it is a new opportunity and economic growth point for the industry.”

He analyzed that: first, new demands will drive technological iteration and upgrades; second, new industry forms such as space situational awareness, on-orbit servicing and debris removal, and space finance and insurance will accelerate, becoming new growth points for commercial space.

“The demand for space governance contains market potential. We believe that through industry chain collaboration and technological innovation, governance needs can gradually transform into sustainable market opportunities, strengthening China’s space safety service industry and contributing to high-quality development of commercial space,” said a Tianbing Technology representative.

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