China's economy got off to a strong and positive start in the first two months

Securities Times Reporter Jiang Lan

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in the first two months of this year, key economic indicators such as industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed asset investment have significantly rebounded compared to December of last year. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist, and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics on the National Economy, stated that the economy has started strongly and is off to a good beginning in the first two months.

Industry is an important pillar of the national economy. From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to December of last year. Looking at industries and products, most sectors and products have seen growth rates rebound. Among 41 major industry categories, 31 experienced faster growth than in December of last year, with a recovery rate of 75.6%. Of over 600 key products monitored, more than 350 saw growth rates rebound compared to December, with nearly 60% showing improvement.

Fu Linghui said that with the continued efforts of more proactive macro policies, the “dual circulation” development strategy has been solidly promoted, the “two new” policies are being implemented consecutively, new growth drivers are accelerating, and external trade exports have strengthened. As a result, industrial production in January and February has significantly accelerated, with optimized and upgraded industrial structure and continued improvement in development quality.

From January to February, the added value of equipment manufacturing increased by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 47.4% to the growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size. “In recent years, as competitiveness and strength have improved, equipment manufacturing has increasingly become an important pillar driving industrial growth,” Fu said.

In the first two months, under the effect of policies aimed at expanding effective investment, fixed asset investment nationwide turned from decline to growth. From January to February, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 52.721 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a 3.8% decline for the entire previous year.

Fu emphasized that investment in key areas has grown rapidly, playing a positive role in optimizing supply structure and expanding market demand. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and director of the Research Institute at Kaiyuan Securities, told Securities Times that infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year, significantly faster than the previous year.

In terms of consumption, the long holiday during the Spring Festival had a clear positive effect, with policies promoting “trade-in” continuing to be effective. Cultural tourism and leisure entertainment markets are active, service consumption is growing rapidly, and market sales have rebounded noticeably. From January to February, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to December of last year; service retail sales grew by 5.6%, significantly faster than merchandise retail. All these data indicate expanding domestic demand.

The good start to the economy in January and February is inseparable from the cultivation of new productive forces and the growth of new drivers. Fu said that in January and February, the added value of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries increased by 14.2% year-on-year. The rapid growth of the electronics industry has driven the upstream raw materials sectors, especially the chemical industry. Meanwhile, with the development of artificial intelligence and increased demand for computing power, the upstream energy sector has also been significantly affected. From January to February, the added value of power, heat production, and supply industries increased by 5.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 4 percentage points from December of last year. The role of new drivers in boosting upstream and downstream industries has strengthened. As green transformation advances, the production of new energy equipment has accelerated significantly, with many new energy equipment products maintaining high growth rates, injecting new momentum into economic growth.

However, Fu also warned that the external environment currently faces many uncertainties, with rising risks of geopolitical conflicts and uncertain spillover effects. Domestically, there are still contradictions of strong supply but weak demand, and some enterprises are experiencing operational difficulties. Moving forward, more proactive macro policies need to be implemented. Luo Zhiheng believes it is necessary to further strengthen the coordination of reform measures and macro policies to transform policy effects into endogenous growth drivers for the economy.