3.16 Retrospective

Today, I won’t talk about stocks but about recent changes in market momentum.

Since the beginning of the year, it’s been really difficult to trade. Small positions are doing well, but large positions are trapped. We’ve started some style shifts. First, the quantitative style has evolved from random peaks to now focusing on logical peaks. Even with a market cap of over 200 billion, stocks can be instantly pushed to the daily limit. That’s the power of quantitative trading.

I’ve always said that following the trend is key. These four words translate to “go with the flow.” We can’t beat quantitative strategies. Recently, the best approach has been to follow the momentum—immediately jumping on stocks with the most logical setups and best charts. There will definitely be gains. For example, in chemicals, Baofeng, Chitianhua, and Jinniu Chemical all have solid logic, not just riding on concepts. In electric power, Jinkai New Energy and Xiexin Energy are the most logical, with strong charts and volume. As long as you participate promptly, you’ll see gains. The biggest risk now isn’t chasing high, but chasing random stocks. For instance, Shun Na, which tried to hit five limit-ups in a day but didn’t succeed, still ended up with a positive close. Ningbo Construction, however, didn’t fare well; after clarification, it started to decline. Of course, it’s not all like that. Recently, I’ve been joking that I’m doing manual quantitative analysis—following the logic. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

The second point is about sector rotations. Last Friday, the chemical sector was at its peak, with Chitianhua, Jinniu, Hongbaoli, Jinzhi, and others hitting daily limits. I was contemplating this on Friday, realizing that after a surge, quantitative strategies often pull back to distribute. As expected, on Monday, the stocks pulled back to distribute, and following the quantitative signals led to losses. On the day electric power ended its surge, GCL, Jinkai, and Hanlan also peaked. By Friday, only GCL remained. I judged that if GCL didn’t gap up, it would need to correct, and today that was confirmed. Both electric power and chemicals need adjustments. During these adjustments, some stocks still maintain visibility and should stay hot. Both sectors can absorb a lot of capital. The chemical industry remains long-term optimistic this year. Price increases will gradually reflect in company earnings, especially with earnings season in April. After the chemical sector was hit today, I looked at the market for a long time but didn’t buy any stocks. I saw semiconductors, AI hardware, and PCB stocks rallying, so I chose Bomint and Taijing Technology, based on their charts and logical setups.

Regarding AI applications, Huasheng is still leading. There’s no way around it—only Huasheng or Tuowei can drive the sector. This position is currently losing money, but since my position size is large, I expect a rebound. If it breaks below support tomorrow, I’ll exit. If I lose money, so be it.

The same advice applies: don’t fight quantitative strategies—join them. It will make trading more comfortable.

[Taogu Ba]

$Huasheng Tiancheng(sh600410)$ $Sanfangxiang(sh600370)$